Friday, November 26, 2010

It Can Only Cost More

For those who haven't been watching local news in Germany....the Stuttgart 21 affair continues on in high gear.  This is the project to bring modern railway operations into Stuttgart, involving a vast number of new subway tunnels and an amazing amount of money.  And the project is destined to take a decade to complete.

Today, it came out that while the local Greens have really fussed over and demanded a hand in the project....things in the mediation part of the deal are about to embarrass them in a major way.

The head guy in the negotiation team is now hinting that joint talks to fix a number of problems which the Greens have mentioned....WILL push up the cost of the project.  This mediator....Heiner Geißler.....isn't mixing any nice or pleasant words with the description of "fixes" to make everyone happy.

You can imagine the Greens meeting off in a secret session and asking themselves what happens when the public realizes that the things they've asked....actually pumped the cost up even more.  They will probably bring in a budget person to analyze the new requirements and confirm they screwed up.  Then they will bring over a public affairs guy to figure out how to explain this by Saturday, so that the Sunday editions of news to properly quote the leadership of the Greens.

The Stuttgart public has already accepted the project for the most part (three months into this project roughly at present).  They know the cost, and the time conditions.  I would speculate the biggest negative for a local guy in town is the traffic shut-down of various streets during the construction phase.  For a regional guy....the discussion over cost might matter more.

As for this working in the favor of the Greens in the upcoming election in the spring?  If this comes true over increased costs because of Green changes....the big massive attraction to the Greens will likely not occur.   Is the negotiation team using the naive business view of the Greens to cast them in this position?  The likely answer is yes.

I can imagine the Greens demanding that this park and that park be spared, and the plans guy just smiling because there's another 5 percent cost increase here and there....which the Green folks really can't comprehend triggering because they saved a park in the city.  This ought to make a great movie one day....how the Greens saved so much land, and cost so much more in building costs.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi,
I also followed this mediation stuff of S21 closely ( I once visited Stuttgart on a Euro trip, so I had a special interest) and think it's quite an interesting project for reaching a more democratic approach than Germans or even Americans used to have. So I watched these discussions on the live stream and in the press and think you may be mistaken on several points:

1. Stuttgart public already accepted:
That's IMHO wrong. The split is 44 to 41 percent in the polls, so the public is quite perfectly split (within error margins).

2. about the costs: I don't love the Greens, but you are wrong that their stance (which I assume is the K21 proposal) would be more expansive and less efficient. If you would have followed closely the discussions you would have noticed that the proposed alternative might be equally efficient and cheaper (even if you count in the costs of getting rid of the running project). Okay, maybe it wouldn't be so fancy as an underground station, but I learnt one thing about Germans when I visited their country. As much as they seem to be superficial when it comes to perfectly tidied streets, painted houses and flawless cars they always choose efficiency when it comes to spend big money (e.g. they prefer buying a small car instead of spending more money on a big one as long as it suits their needs. okay, even the small car should have no single scratch)

3. About the demonstration: I talked to friends I have in Stuttgart on both sides. The interesting part is that there is practically no social difference between both groups (S21 vs Contra S21). Both are a perfect demographic sample of the population there even if it comes to political opinions (I have a friend who voted everytime conservative and is contra and another who's leftish (SPD) and is pro) and they are all peacefully but strongly engaged (the tens of thousand protesters are just the peak of the iceberg). So, try to remember when we had this the last time in the US? Maybe we should all have a close look on this as the protesters are exactly calling for more the same thing our people, both Tea Party and "Change" supporters, are calling for: more direct participation of WE THE PEOPLE in governing the country instead of having those "Big Guys" deciding all against the will of many.

Anonymous said...

After the government spent years planning and approving a megaproject, the people first figure out that it may not be so good after construction has already started?

Is that the way a well functioning democracy is supposed to work?