Guarded Enthusiasm

Bloomberg Businessweek has an interesting short update: The Germany central bank is giving a thumbs up on the German economy for 2011....and for 2012.

German stocks look great.  German business dividends look great.  Domestic consumption is very positive.  And the unemployment can only decline over the next two years.

The hint from the Bundesbank looks like two percent growth for next year, and at least 1.5 percent in 2012.  All very positive numbers. Most state banks would be planning magnificent bonuses for their management team in a moment like this.

Would a German be in a hearty state of mind after hearing this?  The truth is no.  None of this would really make a German rush out to buy a new house, a new car, or a 60 inch LCD TV.  It wouldn't even make a German plan on a bigger than normal vacation.  In fact, it would even be questionable if it helps in an election year to give the stamp of approval to the party in charge.

So quietly, the Merkel team sits and scratches its head over great news.  There's nothing they can get out of this.