Monday, March 26, 2012

The Political Game

What does the Sunday election results mean?  Well....take into consideration that these were German regional elections....which don't have much to say about the national situation (usually).

The CDU won on fair scale.....while the FDP (the junior partner of the CDU at the national level) lost a fair bit.  It would be truthful to say that it's a trend building up and the national election (when it does come) might spell doom for the FDP folks.

The way that the German system works....you run the national election and everyone who gets five percent or more of the vote.....gets a chance to stand in the Bundestag and run the government.

On the average....the CDU/CSU partnership pulls in around 35 to 42 percent of the national vote.  To control things.....they need a partner to get up to fifty percent.

Normally, the FDP would pull in around 7 to 10 percent of the national vote.  Things aren't looking well and one might guess that they'd be lucky to pull in 4-percent....meaning they won't even get a seat in the Bundestag.

Then you come to the opposition party....the SPD.  They usually run from 25 to 40 percent (on average) in the election.  They could partner up with the CDU/CSU folks.....but they could decline and turn it into a problem to get a partnership.

Then you have the Greens.  In the old days....they were lucky to pull 6 percent of the national vote.  Some people think they might actually pull 15 percent of the vote in the next election.....taking votes off the SPD. It would be a far reach to partner up the CDU/CSU with the Greens.....but it may turn out to be the only possibility.

Finally, you have the Linke Party.  This is left-over group of the Communists and far-left.  In a national election, they can pull five to eight percent of the vote.  Almost everyone has agreed that they will not partner with this party under any circumstances.

If this sounds like a difficult political problem to solve....it is.  German political analysts will spend hours and days....talking over the various implications, and how things might work out.  And when all the smoke has cleared.....folks could come to the conclusion that this is crazy and start thinking of another election in the not-so-distant future.

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