Sunday, January 6, 2013

An Odd German Election Year

After spending two weeks in Germany....I've come back to the US with this odd prospective of unfolding political intrigue.....that the CDU/CSU machine....will end up trying to partner with the Green Party as the election occurs later this year.

Someone from the 1990s of Germany would have sat there in absolute shock to suggest such a thing, but polls now show a fairly odd mix of numbers that you wouldn't expect.

The FDP will be exceptionally lucky to clear five percent on the national vote.  With that....they won't be able to help the CDU/CSU take charge of the Bundestag after the election.  The current figures show the CDU/CSU clearing close to forty-one percent of the vote.  They need another party with nine percent or more.

The Pirate Party?  They seem locked into a three-percent range right now and probably lack any real adult leadership.  If they had one great national candidate who could debate at the four-star level....they might bump up to six-to-seven percent, but that just won't happen.

The Linke Party team?  They might actually clear around eight percent of the national vote, but no one really wants to partner-up with them....from either the CDU/CSU or SPD.

So you finally come to the Greens.  For some odd reason, they've remained out of trouble and kept a focused profit for the past two years.  They could clear twelve-to-fourteen percent of the national vote.  The fact that the national policy over nuclear power plants has gone their direction....might be enough to tempt the Greens into a quiet four-year partnership with the CDU/CSU folks.  Adding to the mix is that the German military deployments into Afghanistan are likely coming to an end.

So by the end of 2013, this odd political marriage of sorts will likely occur.  Those who remember the Greens attitude in the early 1980s probably are a bit shocked at how this all comes up today.

So I come to this personal observation of the SPD folks.  It's a group of guys....mostly all in their sixties....without any attraction to the typical thirty-year old voter.  If you rounded up the top ten members of the SPD.....you'd go man by man, and come to this conclusion that some huge change has to occur over the next four years.  They need to roam out into the countryside and find this female potential candidate and work them up the chain to national level over the next four years.

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