The fall national election isn't that far away. Some polling efforts this past week, have determined that the state election in Bavaria is going likely make the SPD hurt more than they'd like.
You see.....the Bavarian state election for state and local positions.....is going to occur about week ahead of the national election. And right now? The SPD looks awful. The polls hint eighteen percent for the SPD currently. Course, I have to add.....generally, the SPD never carries high numbers in Bavaria. It's kinda like Texas....folks might lean more to the right than they'd like to admit in public.
What happens on election night if the SPD do pretty awful.....say fifteen to eighteen percent of the vote in Bavaria?
Well....it could convince a number of independents to really dump on the SPD, and go for a radical approach.....maybe vote Green.....maybe vote for the Pirate Party.....maybe even vote for the anti-Euro Party.
If both Pirate Party and the anti-Euro Party carry five percent or more.....it's likely that Chancellor Merkel will have to partner up with at least one of them.....with the FDP.....in hopes of getting her fifty percent support.
What you should expect as the Bavarian results are announced on that Sunday evening? Journalists will generally say that it has no effect on the national election....repeating the comment often that evening. For one out of ten voters? It probably has an effect, and makes them question the idea of voting SPD. It's a vote lost.....if you ask me, and the SPD cannot afford to lose votes.