Saturday, August 17, 2013

The German Election

The 22 September election is barely a couple of weeks away now.  The results will form the 598 member Bundestag (parliament).

For practical purposes.....the election is mostly over now.  The CDU with Chancellor Merkel is guaranteed at least forty percent of the vote....and may even clear forty-five percent in the end.  For the CDU, this is a fairly easy election and they haven't had to fight intensely to get this victory.

So the questions left for 22 September?

1.  Will the FDP carry at least five percent of the national vote?  Some folks are hesitant this election to say absolutely yes.

2.  Will the SPD carry less than twenty-five percent of the vote?  If so....it'll be a dismal showing and likely shake up the leadership scheme in the months to come.

3.  Will the Pirate Party shock everyone by getting five or six percent of the national vote?  And if they do.....will they be invited to partner with the CDU?

4.  Will the anti-Euro Party shock people with five percent of the national vote?

5.  Finally....who ends up as the partner with the CDU win?  There are a few folks that think that the Greens will get an invitation to the table, and shock their SPD buddies by accepting.  The anti-nuke plant stance by the CDU folks may be a positive to the Greens.

Other than that....it's pretty much a wasted election, and things will continue as they are today.  Chancellor Merkel could even think of the 2017 election as another simple win....although four years away.

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