Friday, August 2, 2013

What Polling Data Says or Doesn't Say

The first realistic political poll (the Infratest-dimap survey) for the fall election has come out.  What it generally says:

1.  The CDU and Chancellor Merkel are safely sitting at 42 percent.  Their chief competition?  The SPD?  They are at 26 percent.  It's a safe difference and it's fairly doubtful that the SPD could mount any big change to their numbers.

2.  The Greens are safely at the third spot with 13 percent.

3.  The key to a CDU/CSU and FDP team at the Bundestag?  Well....the FDP needs to pull a minimum of five percent, which is barely where they stand presently.  If the FDP fails.....it does twist and turn the whole election upside down.

So we come to the two political parties not mentioned in the polling data.....mostly because they are new and their present numbers aren't great: the Anti-Euro Party and the Pirate Party.  Realistically, the media journalists aren't giving either party much of a chance to get beyond three percent.  In fact, both probably draw votes from the FDP crowd, and hurts the FDP to a fair degree.

What happens if the Pirates or Anti-Euro Party get their five-percent?  It makes for an interesting scenario where the Chancellor will have to select one of them as a third-partner.....possibly even both of them....if the FDP fails the five-percent vote.

From this point on out....I would suspect Chancellor Merkel will quietly make a speech or two, and try to avoid any negative publicity.  She has the win easily for the CDU....it's best just to smile and grin as things wind down in the fall election.

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