Saturday, October 26, 2013

The German-NSA Gameplan

As of this morning (Saturday).....the general scripted plan is written up and being put into action.

A group of German intelligence folks are on their way to DC this weekend, and will have these roundtable meetings for next week.  The end result will be this understanding of a treaty....likely to involve France and Germany.  For those who didn't realize it....France also was a target of the NSA (at least the German media reports it that way).

The DC intelligence guys will be sitting there....mostly in a daze...because they really have no priority on this business, and the Germans want this treaty wrapped up and made complete by the end of this year.  Yeah.....a full-up treaty....done....in sixty-odd days.  It ought to take a full year....maybe three years....all to be done in sixty-odd days.

The odds of the US Senate voting and accepting the treaty?  It's yet to be discussed and I'd give at best....fifty-fifty odds.

What will the treaty say?  The Germans hint that they know of the Five-Eyes Treaty between the US and a host of English-speaking countries (Australia, the UK, New Zealand, Canada, etc), and that the US for fifty-odd years....has not spied on any of these countries.  Well....the Germans and the four mentioned countries believe in the no spying part to the story....whether true or not.  The Germans want a similar treaty, and it has to include France (their current buddy).

For President Obama, it doesn't really fit into his usual stall-everyone-for-months strategy.  In this case, the Germans aren't kidding around and could just toss the NSA and CIA guys out of Germany entirely.  If the stall strategy is thrown into this mess....at some point in 2014....things would go badly for the administration, and it'd be hard to explain all of this in the US news media.  Stories have to make sense, and when you get knocked down in the international press....questions of a funny nature get raised.

So, the race is on.  Find ten simple paragraphs that basically say you won't dare spy on Germany and France, and promise to restrict future operations.  Then find someone like the Secretary of State to sign it.....not the President.....and just pretend that this mess is fixed for the time being.  Yeah, we are just waiting for the next Snowden shoe to drop, and another piece of the NSA mess to spill onto the floor.

Kinda funny in a way.....a treatment to fix what Snowden dumped, and then waiting for the bit of Snowden-fall to occur.  We might need a permanent US and German crew....working around the clock to fix Snowden episodes to occur.

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