Friday, May 9, 2014

Germany, the Ukraine, and Russia: Saga Continues

Over the past week....German political forums are chatting on an excessive scale....over this Sunday's Ukraine election situation.

To put this all into prospective....Sunday's vote in Ukraine really centers around a simplified one line end-result, with three possible outcomes. 1) You want to stay united as one Ukraine. 2) You want to stay part of Ukraine but really function as a 2nd state, and therefore have a fair amount of autonomy within your state....but function as the nation of the Ukraine.  3) Annex off eastern Ukraine completely to Russia, and get all the life and privileges of a typical Russian.

Polls?  Well, it's curious because some folks actually went out and polled the public in both west and east Ukraine.  Nationwide?  Three of four want Ukraine to remain as one nation.  Even among Russian-speaking Ukrainians....the numbers say over fifty percent want one nation...although feel a 2nd state should fit into the Ukraine framework.

Frankly, the polls released....worry Russians a bit.  They had thought up through last week that it was a foregone conclusion that annexation to Russia would be roughly seventy-percent of the eastern vote.  This suggestion is now challenged.  If the vote goes better than sixty percent for a 2nd state within Ukraine?  It's a loss for Russia, but it really brings up how they proceed ahead with the EU trade-deal.

My general prediction?  I think Sunday will arrive, and thugs across eastern Ukraine will come to mess up attendance at voting stations.  Intimidation, violence, fires, riots, etc.  If you can intimidate fifty percent of the adult population to avoid the polling stations, then the vote is screwed up and it'll never reach any real conclusion.  It's the only way that Russian can continue the soap opera going on currently.

A fifty-one percent win for the annexation crowd?  It just won't carry much weight in the news media or across eastern Ukraine....even with the Russian-speaking crowd.  It needs to be ninety percent....like the Crimea, so that it's absolute in nature.

As for Germany?  This week.....you see just about every single German political figure trying to throw cold water on the mess, and just hint that it all needs to slow down, with people talking over their future.  If they all thought about economic stability, and the basic foundations of public safety.....then it'd all resolve itself in days, not months. Having to face up to Russia and the threat of problems with natural gas delivery....isn't one of the top ten issues that the SPD or CDU wants over the next year.

Shock in the Crimea if eastern Ukraine puts up seventy percent of the vote to stay "as is", but as a 2nd state?  Yeah, the folks in the Crimea would start to walk back to the whole mess that started there and ask what exactly they get in the future from 'Mother-Russia'.  This isn't the agenda that folks dreamed for and expected.

A hot topic in Germany?  To be honest, I doubt if ten percent of Germans would put this Ukraine thing into their top ten priorities.  Most won't care about the Sunday election.  The majority will flip to some cooking show on Sunday evening....rather than watch Ukraine voting results.  That, by itself, says alot about the mess in Ukraine.

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