Friday, May 9, 2014

Snowden and the Anticipated Interview

Germany has a 'select-committee' on the NSA investigation, and based on comments yesterday....a majority of the members are voicing the necessity to interview Edward Snowden, formerly of the NSA....now residing safely in Moscow.

My best guess is that by August.....it will occur.  The remaining million-dollar question is where it occurs.  Most members of the SPD party want it in Germany.....most of the CDU/CSU members would prefer it occur in Moscow.

The difference here?  Well....if the SPD rigs this up and gets Snowden on a plane into Germany.....he will never return to Moscow.  He's staying in Germany.  Then, a mess will start to unravel as the US presents extradition papers and demands his return to the US.  By law, unless there's a death-penalty situation overhanging him.....Germany would normally be forced into handing him over....probably after the interview.

You can pause here and ponder this....would the SPD kindly allow this to happen?  No.  They would put intense pressure upon Chancellor Merkel and the CDU/CSU to prevent that....saying that Snowden is a national hero.  Using the media and various pro-Snowden forums.....it'd become a problem to hand him over.  For the CDU/SPD government, the pressure involved might be enough to collapse it, and require new elections (just six months into the new cycle of four years).

US retaliation for failing to hand Snowden over?  Yeah, that's also something that would come to be discussed.  The SPD doesn't really care.....it's main agenda since the early 1960s has been mostly anti-US.

Another reason for the SPD focus?  In the next couple of months, there's some feeling that former SPD member....Sebastian Edathy's kid sex stuff will go back on the front page.

Edathy?  Well....he's the SPD top-twenty guy, who was found by some IT guy with a laptop containing child sex photos.  There's a long wandering story over this.....mostly how the government guys botched up the initial phase (by accident or on purpose).

Currently?  The whole Edathy affair got pushed back down into Lower Saxony (a German state), and is being led around by a state prosecution team but there's some questions over enthusiasm and corruption.  The FDP in Lower Saxony is mounting a public relations attack over the handling, and this might come back to bit political voting in the next election....with the public really fed up with manipulation and protection of a political figure getting away with a state crime.

Nationally, the media is trying fairly hard to avoid commenting on the Edathy affair, and using Snowden and the NSA mess might be the only big enough story to stall some really harsh stories over the handling of Edathy.  I might also suggest that Edathy is an anchor tied to several other political figures, who might accidentally get noticed in this whole mess....so finding a bigger mess to publically drag around in the news....is priority number one.

As for Snowden?  It's entirely possible he ends up in Germany, and quietly residing in some small quiet community.  I can see this scenario.  It certainly would be better than Moscow.  The hero status?  For several years, he might bask in the sunlight of such hero worship.....write two or three books.....appear for an interview every six weeks.....and feel "wonderful".  Being used as a tool of the SPD agenda?  I doubt if it would hit him for five or six years, and then he'd realized how this was all manipulated....just like his stay in Moscow.

The fat lady singing?  She might sing, and sing, and sing, and sing.  Over and over.  But I just don't see anything over in this case, when the fat lady sings.  

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