Saturday, December 20, 2014

Explaining 2017, Pegida, and the AfD

Why all the sudden hype over "Nazi-Pin-Stripes", Pegida, immigration issues, AfD, etc?

There's some worry from the political parties over what might occur in 2017 and the next general election in Germany.

To lay out this out....assume the following two facts.  Chancellor Merkel will likely not run as Chancellor, and retire.  Assume as well that whoever the SPD sends up as their primary Chancellor candidate....will be a weak public public speaker or without a central theme.  I might also go one step further and assume that the FDP will not recover, and gets less than three-percent of the national vote.....meaning no standing in the Bundestag.

Here's the impossible scenario that folks kinda fear.  The CDU sends up a lesser Merkel-like candidate and barely scraps out twenty-eight percent of the national vote to win the election.  The SPD with it's no-thrills candidate only scraps up twenty-one percent of the national standing, and the Greens barely get eight percent.  The Linke Party?  It's charged up and actually finds two or three topics to connect to the public on, and gets nineteen percent.  Finally, those pesky AfD guys can twenty-four percent of the vote.

It's time to assemble a majority in the Bundestag.  The CDU can't really partner with the Linke Party, zero chance.  Same for the AfD folks.

The CDU/CSU/SPD connection.....if all added up would only get you forty-nine percent.  The German Constitution requires a fifty percent or more to carry out the government.  So, you'd need a third partner....namely, the Green Party (your ONLY option).

Imagine sitting in the room and working out a deal where the CDU/CSU is handing out sixty percent of the government functions and the arrangement for the future is heavily SPD and Green-themed. It'd be a lousy government to get things done, and disagreements would be erupting almost weekly over new problems.

Four years into this type of government.....the public would be greatly disenchanted and the AfD might pick up another ten-percent of the national vote.....knocking the CDU/CSU out and down to number two or number three.  The Linke Party?  It might even pick up another five percent.

So as much as 2017 is important and Pegida might influence the outcome of the election.....it's really 2021 that you'd have to view as a very radical year and possible flip the German to some weird combination of politics on all sides.

What you should assume is that most of the major political parties in Germany don't want this influence of immigration/refugee problems to become a central theme for the general public.  It only brings up stressful issues down the line which could turn into bigger problems.

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