Friday, October 30, 2015

One Odd Poll Result

Focus, the German news magazine, went out this week and asked probably the best polling question of the decade.  What happens in this charged up atmosphere of refugee anxiety, if the Bavarian CSU Party were to step beyond the stripped line of Bavaria and compete nationally in Germany....where the CDU would typically have their territory?

I've been waiting weeks and weeks for some news media source to ask this question.

Well, according to public opinion that Focus observed.....the numbers say that the Bavarian CSU Party would more than double in an election.  The numbers hint that they'd go higher than fourteen percent.  Using that angle, Focus says that the CDU would probably take barely twenty-seven percent (way lower the 34-percent of 2013's election).

One has to observe this and ask several questions.

The negative talk by the CSU is more widely accepted than most journalists suggest.  With no real party countering Merkel's current strategy.....the CSU has room to walk around and talk against the strategy.

There are three state elections in Germany in March of 2016.  Currently....the CSU shouldn't participate in any of these.  What happens if they suddenly show up and organize in these three states?  They'd subtract votes from the CDU effort and probably create SPD wins....but then they'd have to partner up with the Linke Party and/or the Green Party.  That usually makes people feel aggravated and frustrated when you suggest some state partnership like that.

The odds of the CSU doing something this crazy?  Unknown.  They haven't suggested this in any forum and probably would prefer to avoid answering the question until we get to December and open season on state election forums.

Could the CSU shock the public with some speaker for the party that people would immediately want to hear?  I can only think of Karl-Theordor zu Gettenberg, who says after the degree plagiarism charge....he won't come back to politics in Germany.  It would really throw things into a uproar if he suddenly showed up....did a couple of speeches and just stayed beyond the big circle.....talking negative about immigration strategies, and national trends.

The idea of both parties permanently connected?  It's an unwritten rule and it's hard to imagine a scenario where one party would go after the votes of another.

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