Thursday, October 29, 2015

Sixteen Billion, More or Less

Somewhere in the German news today.....NOT on Channel One (ARD) or Two (ZDF), there was this mention by a civilian association group (Association of German Cities) over some analysis done with crunching the numbers on cost and relative numbers of asylum seekers in Germany today.

The produced number for 2016 cost?  Sixteen billion Euro (roughly 19 billion dollars).

There's some rough estimation going on because no one is sure about how many new refugees will show up in 2016.....maybe half-a-million....maybe 1.5 million.  You just don't know.

The effect of this sixteen billion number? has to come out of tax revenue.  And this isn't something that you can just carve off social programs, education, or opera house costs.  It'd really perk up the financial side of the government, and trigger them to huddle with 'mutti' (Chancellor Merkel), and just say it's not possible without more taxation.

Going in front of Germans to admit more taxes to pay for this?  The CDU folks can talk all they want....but it probably won't happen with current political make-up in the Bundestag.  The SPD folks will ask Merkel to talk excessively on this and trigger massive fallout among conservatives in Germany.  So I just don't see new taxes occurring.

Just borrowing the money?  My hunch is that they will eventually go to some banking structure or bond deal, and just quietly do it.  The public will figure this out, and it'll be hard to talk about this in public.

The no-cost immigration thrills?  Well, here is the positive.  If you had sixteen billion Euro and you spent the sixteen billion Euro on these folks.....the money would somehow continue through the public sector, the grocery sector, the smart-phone sector, the banking sector, the business sector, the banking sector, the food sector, the booze sector, the smokes sector, the language training sector, the car sector and end up back into some German pockets, and get taxed in some fraudulent way.  Maybe it's not a bad thing.  But go try explaining this to a hundred Germans.


Patient X said... evasion cost us 160 Billion a year...16 Billion is peanuts...

R Hammond said...

The sixteen billion figure will end up as a topic on 'new taxes'. Go look at the political atmosphere and how opposition parties will demand some accounting explanation and tax strategy to cover the cost. Other than using the solidarity tax and keep it going past 2019, there's not much of an escape route. For those who question simply piles another log onto the fire and makes this a problem in state elections (March 2016).

Patient X said...

This whole refugee topic is blown out of proportion. The second things improve in Syria or the Balkan, they will leave and go back home. Even the turks are moving back to Turkey. Yes, taxes will remain high, but one thing is certain, the state will never be poor. They will squeeze the last drop out of people to fix the budget, unlike every other nation on earth that keeps on piling debt on debt.