Wednesday, October 28, 2015

The Interview Story

Focus ran a short piece this morning on commentary from a migration-immigration expert....Rainer Baubock, from an interview with an Austrain newspaper (Der Standard).

It's an interesting interview because he comes out and says that in a decade....we may all look back and view the Chancellor's pro-immigration idea as a positive action for Germany.

The reason?  Baubock goes back to the standard German problem of population....which is on a negative spiral.  No one argues much about that and if you look at some university the 2050 era....without any correction or solution.....Germany might get down into the 65 million level (they have barely eighty million Germans today).

As Baubock points out....most European countries have the same problem.

Baubock's take is that on humanitarian and economic factors.....Merkel's plan is a winner and people will admit that as time goes by.

I'm more skeptical of where this all goes.  If you take in a million-plus people....they can sit at refugee camps for six-odd months, but they will be expecting real homes or apartments by the end of that period.  Where are these empty homes and apartments?  I agree....if you went across all of Germany and used fairly rural towns......there are probably enough places, but these rural areas have empty apartments for particular reasons.....there are no jobs there.

Job training resources?  Germany's education sector wasn't built to grow at sudden paces and take in tens of thousands each month.  Most job training opportunities exist in urban you will have to get this guy from point A to point B.....where will this mythical transportation come from?

The months on some government assistance and waiting to get job-certified?  It'll become a negative factor as some guy realizes that it might take three years for him to get any kind of job.

The German job market on fire?  There's always talk of impending issues for Germans retiring soon....but it's not like a million jobs will open in 2016 or 2017 for these new immigrants.

Cost factor?  Eventually, the Finanzamt will come out and admit they can't pay the bills for the immigration episode unless they tax more or lessen the cost factor of various German programs (infrastructure, etc).  This will awaken some Germans to ask just how much this will all cost and it'll get fairly quiet in the room.

Finally, I come to this odd German thing about ex-Chancellors.  Both Kohl and Schroeder stepped out the door to find a fair amount of negativity over their period.  Both had high points and some negative issues.  The public isn't exactly that happy over either ex-Chancellor.  Up until this refugee crisis period, Merkel was probably going to exit in 2017 with the majority of Germans happy over her performance (on the whole, there weren't that many screw-ups).  Now?  I'd say roughly thirty percent of the public are negative about Merkel and it can only expand over the next year or two until we reach the election-period.

A decade is a long time.....maybe this guy's analysis is right and immigration was positive for Germany.  It's just that you need to get from point A to point B, and this will not be a very smooth ride and the frustrations among the asylum-seekers and regular Germans will be tested daily.

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