Sunday, December 27, 2015

Four Questions

For roughly fifteen months, I've followed the immigration and asylum episode in Germany.  I'm not German.....and generally don't have much of an opinion for or against the situation.  For me, it's an exercise in management and government operations that the Germans have done a fairly marginal job at different levels.  Adding to the perception is the state-run news media which became less of a news organization and more of a cheer-leader intellectual group.

So, I've come to four odd questions which aren't being asked by the state-run news media, the intellectuals, the political figures, or the asylum-seekers themselves.

1.  Let's say Assad resigns tomorrow, and there's this sudden change in government there....how many people sitting in Germany from Syria.....will suddenly stand up and ask for a one-way ticket back to Syria?

I don't think anyone knows this answer....nor do they want to ask it.  It'd probably shock the pro-immigration German crowd to find that half or more of the Syrian immigrants would pack up and go home.  The younger crowd might not be that eager to return to Syria.....they see Germany more as a stable place to live, work, and thrive.

Oddly, if this were to happen in a year or two years.....after a fair number of these individuals were hired and part of some companies work team.....where would the replacements come from?  It opens up some difficult situations for the Germans.

2.  If Assad did agree to leave.....where exactly would he go?

There's not a single country in the Middle East that he'd agree or feel safe.  Forget about Lebanon, Saudi Arabia or Egypt.  Jordan is a possibility but I doubt they'd agree to take him.  Russia?  Maybe, but they'd have to cover for his security.  Germany?  Maybe, but would the Germans be willing to assume a great deal of fallout from the Syrian people?  If Assad came to Germany....would he be going through language and integration classes?  It's comical to think about this scenario but there's nothing much hindering this possibility.

3.  For a decade, Germans in metropolitan areas of Germany have been whining and complaining over a lack of affordable housing.  Now, everyone seems hyped up that the bulk of the million incoming folks for 2015 will be approved.  So, where exactly will they find these affordable homes or apartments?

About every six to eight weeks.....there will be some news piece done on state-run German TV to identify the shortage of affordable homes.  Their piece will always relate back to some government project being necessary to build these low-cost homes, and no one from either the SPD or CDU really wants to be responsible for building these cheap apartment complexes.  I think part of the problem is that they don't want to create something that resembles a ghetto in ten years and have their party responsible for the creation of the low-budget apartment house.

If just 10,000 new immigrant home requirements came to exist for Frankfurt alone.....it might take a minimum of three years....maybe even six....before they'd come to fit within the Frankfurt 'circle'.  Trying to envision this occurring without massive problems is impossible to imagine.

4.  While the open-door policy is advocated by the Merkel government....it's hard to find any other European country that wants to take on the same enthusiasm or relive some of the refugees who want to arrive and live in Germany but it's maxed out.  So the fourth question is.....is Germany making itself into an unwelcomed neighbor?

This is a debatable question.  Other than Austria, I just don't see a friendly agreeable country in Europe who respects the German position on immigration. Up until the last twelve months.....France might have been somewhat friendly, but things have changed there.

If a majority of European countries are taking a lesser view of Germany....what does this say for Germany's role in the EU for the future?

Presently, both Germany and the EU is stuck with Chancellor Merkel and her vision until the end of 2017.   After that?  Most journalists will say that the Chancellor will retire and a new CDU individual will represent the party.  The election in the fall of 2017 promises to be a fairly interesting affair.  Will the same pro-immigration policy continue to exist with the CDU?  Will the SPD overcome the CDU this time around?  Will the AfD find more frustrated voters and challenge the current place-holders?

If we sat around a pub long enough.....we could probably add another dozen questions which ought to be asked in a public setting.

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