Friday, December 11, 2015

"Kid" Politicians at Play

We are within a hundred days of the state election in Baden-Wurttemberg.  This kinda means that TV political talk forums on the regional channel (state-run SWR) ought to occur.

Well.....there's this new and fresh problem.

SWR would typically invite anyone (party-wise) that has more than five-percent of the polling data to come and be part of a discussion forum.  This would include AFD (the fringe group who is on the upswing).   Jorg Meuthen doing well as their candidate.

SWR faces this one challenge though.....according to various news sites out of the state.....both the Green Party and the SPD Party are refusing to come on any talk forum with the AFD Party there.

This intimidation episode include the Prime Minister of the state....Winfried Kretschmann.

Childish behavior?  Thirty years ago.....this tactic would have worked.  You would have forced the network news people to bend over backwards to make you happy.  This would have kept AFD marginally at eight percent.

Now?  With social media, people will talk about the behavior of the SPD, Green Party, and SWR.  Respect for all three will be put into an open discussion.  By the early part of January....being nine weeks away from the election....I suspect polling data will show AFD going up another point....at least nine percent.  SWR will try to run a full forum.  If the Greens and SPD say no?  Then SWR will be forced to run a dozen-odd forums with just a journalist team and one single party guy for twenty minutes of single-person discussion.  It'll look stupid and childish.

All of this is going to help AFD with the numbers.  I admit....it's hard to see AFD going past fifteen percent but that's probably the maximum point of achievement.

Would the SPD and Green parties be worried about their members crossing over and voting AFD?  This would be an amusing question to ask the politicians.   Green voters are pretty tied to the party and it's hard to see more than half-of-one-percent crossing the line.  SPD voters?  That might be another story.  If you look at working-class voters within the SPD....I could see ten-percent crossing the line to send a frustration vote.  For the SPD, at this point in time.....with two more state elections in the fall of 2016....this is not a message that they want to exist.

Bottom line?  Child-like politics at work.....don't expect the public to buy into it.

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