Thursday, January 28, 2016

My Crystal Ball

Trying to make predictions over Germany's current crisis theme is difficult and you have to assume some factors which are fluid in nature, and dependent on the non-solution political theme continuing.  So, my fourteen predictions for the next four years:

1.  March state elections (the three German states).  Rhineland Pfalz will be the only hyped up CDU victor of the three....where the CDU will get 35-to-38 percent of the state vote, and the SPD getting a far distant 23-to-25 percent of the vote.  Because of coalition requirements....Klockner's CDU will have to partner-up with the SPD and everything that Pfalz folks got hyped up on Klockner's agenda?  Marginalized down to nothing because of the coalition they had to build.  From the two remaining states?  From Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU will lead with a dismal 27-to-29 percent of the vote, with the Linke Party only two or three points behind them.  The AfD Party will surprise some folks with almost 20-percent of the vote.  From Baden-Wurttemberg, the AfD folks will do well with around 20-to-25 percent of the vote....the Greens will lose half of the votes they had from 2011....and the CDU will be lucky to be the leader of the election with 30-to-34 percent of the vote.

2.  State-run TV will be standing there on the evening news with election results from the episode, and trying to explain why the CDU, Greens, and SPD lost ground from 2011.  Their polling data will note that immigration and safety are now the main topics of worry for most Germans.  The AfD representative will be there and note that the public is buying their message....getting disgusted looks from the Greens, the Linke Party, the SPD, and the news journalists.

3.  Within a hundred days after the March state elections....the CSU (right-leaning party of Bavaria) will announce they are leaving the national coalition in Berlin.....leaving the CDU and SPD just enough votes to run the government.   It'll happen on a Friday afternoon when the message is read, and the whole weekend will be political chatter on state-run TV about the stupid CSU Bavarians.

4.  Within a month after the CSU has formerly left the coalition in Berlin.....they now announce that they are organizing in both Berlin and Mecklenburg state elections.  They intend to compete against the CDU.  Merkel's crew freaks out and tries to have a meeting with the top forty CDU members.  They then discover that at least five are resigning and now working in a new membership with the CSU.    By this point, the state-run news media is freaking a bit and can't really build a message of confidence in the Bundestag, Merkel and even about trust in the state-run news media.

5.  As October comes around, the CDU is meeting to determine when and how Merkel can resign and leave.  They need a new way ahead, and it can't be with Merkel.  They decide that it's too late in 2016 to effect any change or upgrade their problems with the two remaining elections.   Both elections go with some dismal results for the CDU.....and the CSU is able to get 6-to-8 percent of the state's votes.  The news media is a bit shocked that the Bavarians did that well....in local Berlin politics.

6.  In the spring of 2017, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saarland, and Schleswig-Holstein hold state elections with the new leadership of the CDU and some new theme for the immigration, safety, security and focus ahead.  Sadly, both the CSU and AfD parties surprise people with a 25-percent win between the two parties on the three states.

7.  By summer of 2017, the terms 'racists' and xenophobia get mentioned almost nightly now on political chat forums.  So much so.....that teens are now having drinking contests when each word is uttered in a 60-minute show, and a shot is drunk to each term.  The Catholic Bishop over Germany asks the state-run news people to moderate better and avoid using the terms because of adolescent drinking games.  Some state-run journalists admit that they aren't enthusiasts of immigration or the message game of state-run TV, and they've been playing the drinking game for three years.

8.  The run-up to the national election in the fall of 2017 is chaotic and you start to see leftist groups, anti-capitalist thugs, and radical hoodlums on the rise.  A mini version of the Red Army Faction start to operate....scaring the German even more, and triggering another two or three percent of the public to view a right-wing government as the only way fix this problem (note, this fear of security and safety is now a bigger deal than immigration).

9.  The fall national election in 2017 results in this odd arrangement of the CSU, the AfD Party and the FDP.  The CDU has been lessen to a 16-percent crowd and several of the top members offer resignations and they intend to rebuild the party.  The Greens, Linke Party and SPD barely make up thirty-percent of what remains.  Frustrations mount by the national news media over a right-wing government.

10.  As this new German government tries to move ahead with legislation passed.....various lawyers and foundations now seize upon the court system to halt or hinder the legislation.  Six months after the election.....nothing much as changed, and the public is incensed at the blockage of repairs. The state-run news media is blamed for a great deal of the chatter.

11.  A shocker occurs by early 2018 as the new coalition government decides to kick around the state-run news media.  The TV-council stands in the way....so they do the next best thing....they cut 20-percent of the TV tax and tell the TV-council and state-run TV/Radio to do the best they can with less money.  Massive frustration now occurs, and the management folks determine they will cut sports massively and half the radio stations.....in hopes of getting a national TV crisis now as a bigger issue than safety, security, or immigration.  Amusingly.....commercial TV and radio pick up the weight, and no one much complains about the lessened taxes or the public TV cuts.

12.  Various attacks on American military facilities in Germany throughout 2018 leave some worries on the mind of the US president.  It's blamed on left-wing radicals and a rebirth of the Red Army Faction within Germany.....not Jihadists.  Eventually, there's a decision made to downsize the US footprint and move US military operations out of Germany.   There are some suggestions that the attacks go beyond German radicals and may involve Russian operatives in Germany to destabilize the government.

13.  By the end of 2018....the new immigration and refugee numbers per year in Germany go back down to 250,000....mostly because refugees, immigrants and asylum seekers now consider Germany....a dangerous place (right-wing, left-wing, extremists of various varieties).  At least half of the 1.1 million immigrants of 2015 have packed up and left the country.  They think Syria is now safer than Germany.   German cops aggressively added more cops onto the payroll, and massive sweeps through railway stations and ghetto areas of Germany are now commonplace.

14.  In the midst of 2019....most Germans will say immigration is no longer in their top ten worries.  They worry about radicals (of all varieties), thugs, crime, robbers, Jihadists, and terrorists.  Neither the Linke Party or Green Party can format any political message to meet the public's worry.  Most Germans now say that Germany is not a safe place, and some are thinking of immigrating to another land.  News journalists will try to tell this German desire to leave Germany.....without grinning and looking back to 2016 and how things were stacked up then.

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