Wednesday, January 27, 2016

The Poll That Germans Didn't Want to Hear About

Polls have to be regarded as troublesome things.  Sometimes....a poll will tell you something obvious, and sometimes they will tell you something puzzling.

RTL, the German commercial network, commissioned a poll over the asylum/immigration business.  It's an odd thing.

Roughly 62-percent (the majority of Germany) say that no political party can today solve or fix the crisis.

I talked about this two months ago....where the problem has developed to a stage where it's too complex for any simplistic explanation or solution.  It is beyond the imagination of people sitting at home.....beyond the media's comprehension...and beyond the perception of political figures (from the left or right).

Only seven-percent of Germans polled felt that the SPD could figure a way out of the current crisis.....which probably will dampen the enthusiasm for coalition partner of the current Merkel government.

Only a third of Germany (36-percent) say that Germany still has the ability to cope and continue with the current acceptance of refugees and asylum seekers. It's a dismal drop from what the news media was saying in the spring of 2015 (just twelve months ago).

I sat and read through the N-24 piece on this news item.

Where this leads onto?  Unknown.

This is kinda the parents being out of the house for the evening.....you the teenager calling for a little party of twenty people to come over....then finding 300-plus people at your house and control of the party is beyond your capability.  Cops would typically come and help establish authority....kicking everyone out and your parents going ballistic later over damages. Well....in this case, there are no cops, and the ballistic theme would involve voters going to some really radical extreme.

Why this overwhelming belief in no political party fixing this?  I think it goes to the hundred themes to the immigration/asylum/refugee crisis.  If this were simple five or six issues tied to the mess....a party could whip up two or three realistic answers....attach five or six fake solutions to it, and just fake Germans out.  Once you get to a hundred themes or matters....nothing suggested is believable.

If you tried to reach first base with this problem....you'd have to start with an absolute limit or number of people who'd be allowed to enter and get a visa each year.  Well....no one can agree on that.  Prior to 2012....200,000 to 250,000 was normal.  At least a quarter of the German population believe there can be absolutely no limit.  Some legal minds will say that the current law doesn't allow for limits.  When they did reach a stage last fall where they felt a limit had been reached....then they tried to lead the EU members (their European neighbors) into this German "we can do it" stage, and that failed miserably.  The handful who might have shown some kindness....were thinking in the range of a couple thousand to maybe thirty-thousand.  This hope of getting two-hundred thousand rerouted to some neighbor?  It became an insider joke within the EU.

The real problem with this survey is that a majority of Germans believe the problem is at the stage where it can't be fixed.  That would suggest a lack of confidence of significant proportion.  That means when the news media tries to suggest some perception....the public won't buy it, and they will attach the news media to the issue itself.

It also means that when political figures sit and engage in dialog over the issue....no one will really believe it at home and it'll just be regarded as a joke.

In some ways, it's a poll that isn't very helpful.

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