Saturday, January 23, 2016

Why The Pfalz Election Matters

Most Germans would readily say that Germany now needs a plan-B because Merkel's immigration strategy is simply unacceptable (figure roughly fifty to sixty percent of Germans will say this now).

So, here's this odd development being played out.

In the run-up to the 13 March state elections (3 x German states), the Rhineland Pfalz folks are looking at some odd situation where the CDU candidate is looking pretty good (they might actually carry 36-percent of the vote).  The AfD?  They are barely at ten percent, and the SPD folks are barely at 24-percent.

Why?  CDU Pfalz candidate is Julia Klockner.  She's on some run of luck that most people would never imagine.

She grew up in the Pfalz.....from a family in the wine business.  At twenty-three, she was given the title of German Wine Queen....basically a beauty and talent contest there in the Pfalz.  She's highly educated....having been awarded a Masters Degree from the Mainz University in 1998.  She's quietly worked her way up the CDU levels in the state, and given some impressive speeches.

Last year, she yanked on the CDU topics by picking up the facial coverings of Muslim women and saying there needed to be a state rule against it.  Most folks will say.....if they have a problem with immigration....that she's saying things that they could support.

So Kockner has a plan-B.  Focus had an article about this plan.  She wants daily refugee quotas and border control points.  You fail....you don't advance into Germany.  This would put intense pressure upon border countries because they'd be stuck with refugees and they'd have to act upon their own system real quick.

The impression I get.....Klockner just might win the Pfalz election with more than 40-percent of the vote in March.  She's hoping for a FDP revival and that they get near 10-percent of the vote.  If this were to unfold.....they'd have a coalition.  The odds of a partnership with AfD?  I just can't see it happening.

So, here' the cherry on this cake.  Of the three elections in March....the Pfalz story might be the only positive one for the CDU.  For those who've been wondering who'd run for the CDU chancellor job in November of 2017.....why not Klockner? I admit.....it'd be an awful big step for her to take over as some state governor and then 18 months run for German federal chancellor.  But she's currently 43 years old, impressive at speeches, and the only person really talking of a plan B to Merkel's plan A.

The negative of attaching the CDU national agenda to Klockner?  You are by-passing a dozen-odd people who've been waiting for their chance to run as chancellor.  Then there's the issue of the Muslim facial coverings being eliminated and how much pressure you will put on the SPD to agree with her on that situation.

Oddly, in 1973....that young gentleman....Helmet Kohl....came out of the Pfalz region and shocked a number of folks at the national level of the CDU as well.  Kohl was party head from 1973 to 1998.

So, of the three state elections in March....maybe the Pfalz contest is the most important one to observe.

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