Thursday, March 3, 2016

Expectations for the Baden-Wurttemberg Election

Over the weekend, I noted the voting situation in the Pfalz and how the CDU would fairly well in the mid-March state election here in Germany.

Down in Baden-Wurttemberg.....it's a different story.  Their state election will be a pretty wild story when it unfolds.

The Greens appear fairly strong and might take near 32 percent.....which is the lead point at ten days prior to the election.

The CDU?  A dismal 28 percent, with the SPD sitting at roughly 13 percent.  The Linke Party is barely at 4 percent and probably won't make enough to sit in the state assembly.  The FDP is sitting at 8 percent.

The AfD (anti-immigration)?  They are projected currently at 13 percent....which they might be fairly satisfied with.

The current issue, if this all comes to pass?  Well.....it's a funny thing....you need fifty percent to run the government, so you need a coalition.

Based on the numbers and if the Linke Party isn't in the mix.....then a Green Party-SPD government will not have enough votes to have a coalition.  If the CDU could win....a coalition with the SPD...would apparently not give them enough votes.

So folks are preparing for this idea of a Green, SPD and FDP government.....meaning that the FDP can ask for several major positions and expect to get them.

Of course, this is all based on polling data which says only 13 percent of the folks there are frustrated enough to cross the line and go to the AfD over the immigration episode.

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