Monday, March 14, 2016

My Observations of the Election and Aftermath

1.  Polling days prior did somewhat accurately work.  No one could have predicted a 10-percent higher turn-out.

2.  Next two state elections occur in the fall....both firmly in eastern Germany.  Urbanized state of Berlin has odd factor right now of fascists and radicals active right now, with SPD trying to defend them (go figure).  The CDU has some support but it's a question mark if people would vacate that support.

3.  Julie Klockner of the Pfalz CDU effort.....probably has stumbled badly, and won't be the 2017 CDU candidate to replace Merkel (my humble opinion).  She might hang around and see if the CDU gets some win or coalition situation in 2017.....getting herself a cabinet position.  Sadly, the best of brightest of young CDU players and it would have been a massive plus for the CDU in these frustrating times.

4.  What the CDU, Merkel and coalition partner SPD need for remainder of 2016?  No stupid Koln riots and a immigration picture for the year of less than 500,000.  Presently, in March.....we appear on track for a 700,000-plus year (using present numbers).

5.  The AfD (anti-immigration party) took voters from SPD, CDU, Greens, and Linke Party.  You could tell that the news journalists were a bit taken by this polling data, and their slant for months that it was all a CDU bogus.  In Sachsen, a quarter of the people voting for AfD.....were people who hadn't voted in years....with any party.

6.  I think the CDU will activate some committee to examine the magic moment when Merkel should resign or retire....if the fall election goes badly.  If AfD were to take 20-percent or better in the two elections....I could see Merkel gone by January.

7.  If Merkel leaves, then what?  No one from the CDU or SPD can really stand there and invent some new and different path on asylum, immigration or refugees.

8.  Personally, I'd lay about one-third of the blame for yesterday's election onto the news media.  For the past six months....they've come every single evening with pro-immigration themes and acted more like cheerleaders than journalists.  Their pitch doesn't only catches the 'wind' of other like-minded people.  One of the little themes of the AfD (rarely discussed) is trimming state-run TV....either through legislation or lessening the tax.

9.  Using the brown-label or "Nazi" on AfD?  It won't surprise me when some of the political enthusiasts for other parties try to whip up this comment on national TV or via political chat forums.  The trouble is....they are the ones who invented the current immigration issue and proudly sit upon it.  When opposition came against the growing numbers.....not one single effort was made by any of the five significant parties (the CSU of Bavaria did some talk, I admit).  So as much as negative talk might be spread.....the creator of this mess goes back to the CDU, SPD, Linke Party, Green Party and FDP.....and Merkel's leadership.

10.  The biggest loser of Sunday?  There are a fair number of candidates.....but I'd put the Linke Party at the top.  They lost numbers of voters in all three elections.  I admit, they weren't much in the Pfalz or Baden-Wurttemberg before.....but they lost traction.  In Sachsen, it was a massive loss in their home territory.  They need a new message and a way to connect to voters.

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