Friday, April 29, 2016

Mecklenburg Polling

We are about five months away from the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommen (a eastern Germany state).  Because of the hyped up nature of politics now.....pollings is pretty important.

I noticed this morning that NDR (state-run regional channel for the area) put up a recent poll for trends.

CDU: 24-percent

SPD: 22-percent

AfD: 18-percent

Linke Party: 16-percent

Green Party: 8-percent

FDP: 4-percent

NPD: 4-percent

The intensity of the election has yet to light fire and take off....that's happen around July time-frame.  Right now, both the CDU and SPD are in a tight spot.  They really don't need any spiraling upward numbers on refugees, any Koln-like riots, or political stumbles.  A two or three point drop for either....brings up the AfD up another point or two.

At the present rate, the FDP won't cross the five-percent point and won't be a player in any coalition situation.

Given the time-line, it's still possible that AfD could add two or three points onto their percentage and shock a lot of people by taking first place, but I would question how they'd build any coalition (none of the others would agree to a partnership in the government).  For the SPD, if they get less than 15-percent in this election....you might see some people being dismissed from the Berlin 'circus' and big changes made to rethink the way ahead.

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