Thursday, April 7, 2016

Political Trends

There is a count-down clock for two eastern German states for fall local elections.  Roughly 200 days.  This is a period now where the parties would be looking at the trends and polling data, to correct themselves.

ARD (state-run Channel One) released it's poll for this week, for the nation.

The CDU has a 34-percent rating right now (down two points over the last month).

The SPD has a dismal 21-percent (also down two points).

The Greens have picked up a couple of points and rate at 13-percent now.

The Linke Party lost a few points and sits at 7-percent nationally.

The FDP picked up one single point and sits at 7-percent.

And the AfD Party (anti-immigration) picked up three more be at 14-percent on the national stage.

What can be said is that the leadership of the SPD (Sigmar Gabriel)....isn't winning any good numbers with the public.  To be honest though....if you looked down over the next three or four SPD chiefs at the national one really excites the public stage.

Added to this issue is that the SPD is deeply tied to the immigration vision of Chancellor Merkel.

Steinmeier (the German Secretary of State) is the only guy who is getting positive numbers (even better than Merkel).  But he ran seven years ago and probably isn't that eager to be the head of the party).

What might develop before the summer vacation period?  The SPD might hold a meeting....shuffle some folks around, and bring in someone from one of the state governments who is a positive on public speeches.  I'd also bet on Gabriel being asked to retire before the fall election period.

As for AfD?  The election build-up in the eastern side of Germany will benefit them and their theme.  I could probably see them (after the two state elections) to be nationally around 16 to 17 percent.  What could go against the AfD is the possibility of less than 400,000 refugees coming into Germany for 2016.  No one is saying much....we are 100 days into the year and you'd think if they'd slowed down the inflow.....they'd want to talk about.

So onward we the three state elections in the spring of 2017, and the national election toward the fall of next year.

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