Thursday, April 7, 2016

The Numbers Report

For a number of months, I've been waiting for a German explanation on where immigrants and refugees are mostly heading in Germany....in terms of the sixteen states.

Well, Focus finally down to this aspect of the immigration episode.  A fair number of people were saying that it was mostly in Bavaria, where there are jobs.  The study shows that Bavaria was down on the list with only 9.2 percent of the folks who'd come in. Berlin was slightly ahead of them.

The big gainer?  North Rhine-Westphalia....up in the north was number one with 29-percent (almost one-third of the incoming folks).

This came from analysis of reports that Funke Mediengruppe had access to.....a news service.

Why this matters?  Well....we are just one year away from a state election in North Rhine-Westphalia.  The last election was in May of 2012.

If you were anti-immigrant on your political agenda (AfD for example), you'd have this fact to pump up with voters in the German state.

Why the attraction to North Rhine-Westphalia?  Some people say that it's long been the magnet for people immigrating into Germany, and has a fair number of industrial jobs.  If you were looking for new jobs....it probably wouldn't be on your top three states right now in Germany.

In some ways, this little item becomes a problem now for the SPD and CDU in the North rhine-Westphalia area.  They can't shift things around or really talk their way out of this statistical item.  For the Linke Party, they don't need to worry because they aren't expected to cross even three-percent in the 2017 election.  The odds that the SPD can repeat the 39-percent win of 2012?  I would make a guess that they will be lucky to get anything over 30-percent.

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