Monday, May 23, 2016

Observations over the Austrian Election

The Green candidate won....roughly 1.5-percent over the far-right guy.  So, there are some observations that one might make.

1.  The Austrian center-left and center-right parties are out of step with the public.  It's a question mark if in six years....either can come back to some threshold of 30-percent (11-percent was the achieved effort of each in this run-up episode).

2.  The German news people and all of the Berlin players came out quickly to say they were happy with the new Green President and happy that the right-wing weren't the winner.  Yes, even the CDU and SPD said it.  It was somewhat amusing to view the 60-second soundbite and see the hyped up German reaction (at least by Berlin perception).

3.  The Austrians run an election deal where there is a run-up election, and if no one gets 50-percent or more....there's a second election.  Germans DON'T do it that way.....they vote once and HAVE TO form a coalition government.  Relationships between parties matter.  Germans would freak out if there was a second election and you had to pick from only two candidates.

4.  The Baden-Wurttemberg Green chief.....Kretschmann?  He's sitting in Stuttgart and grinning.  He's the same type character and charmer as the Austrian Green Party guy.  The odds are that Kretschmann will get a request to bring his "show" to Berlin and be the 2017 Green Party candidate.  Does it really help the German Green Party?  Maybe.....but they'd be taking votes away from the SPD Party and it'd start to destroy the future of the SPD as an organization.

5.  The Austrian news people and their slant on this whole election?  As much as they tried to....almost fifty-percent of the population voted right-wing.  It has to worry the German press in general, that their typical message control doesn't work that well.

6.  The SPD Party of Germany is in some spiral, and likely worried about the outcome here.  Presently, they sit at 19.5-percent of public support (a massive low).  If they sink below the 15-percent point.....it'll be a crisis-level situation.

7.  Finally, Just because the Greens won.....does not mean that a pro-immigration slant on political activity will be the norm.  The Green message has been very carefully crafted and built in a way not to worry the general public.  As much as people might think that the Greens are radical in nature.....they've basically been conditioned like the other parties to carry a neutral theme.

No comments: