Thursday, May 5, 2016

Polling Story for May

ARD (Channel One from the state-run media) wrapped up another poll survey this week and published it this morning.

Nationally, both the CDU and SPD slid another point.  The CDU is down to 33-percent, and the SPD is down to 20-percent, with AfD picking up a point (15-percent).

With two state elections heating up and six months away....it's hard to see the public sentiment going back toward the two significant parties in German politics.

At some mythical point, I think in the month after the two German states conclude their regional voting....the SPD and AfD will hit even numbers (probably around 18-percent).  This likely will be the point of worry for the news media and intellectuals.  I think some SPD voters will discuss the future and evaluate whether their vote remains with the SPD or moves to the Green Party.

All of this will create an intense chat forum for the early part of 2017 and the three state elections slated for mid-spring.

Based on the coalition requirement, it's hard to see the AfD Party (the anti-immigration folks) reaching some point where they could lock in the leadership and control of the government.  No one will dare suggest some partnership with the AfD.  The only likely wild scenario is where the CDU slips down into the low twenties, and the AfD mounts some big campaign to get near thirty-percent, and hopes to talk the CDU Party of Bavaria into some partnership....but it'd still leave them short on the fifty-percent requirement for a coalition situation.

So, my feeling is that the AfD wants this federal election in 2017 to be about reaching a simple 2nd-place finish, then forcing the CDU into a weak and marginalized position as the winner.....where their partnership is so screwed up with whoever they select as their coalition partner....that it only further weakens the political establishment in Germany, and brings the 2021 election up for a major change in German politics.

It's hard to imagine a majority of Germans reaching some far right extreme state of mind and reaching a near identical point of 1932-thinking but a series of events led to the weakened state of politics in Germany in the 1920s, and resulted in the radical election in November of 1932.

Whether the news media likes it or not.....they've kindled enough of a 'flame' to keep the public energized on a couple of topics now.

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