Saturday, May 7, 2016

Turkey and the EU Deal

German political folks are quiet after yesterday's comments by Turkey's Erdogan, and the Eu stance on Turkish-EU visas.

What the EU said was that the free-visa deal was on the table and easily done....if Turkey would change or alter roughly 72 different laws.  Yeah, it was a humorous way of saying it's a cold day in hell before we give you free visa status.  You could predict how this would go.  Erdogan's immediate comment was something to the effect.....you go your way, and we will go our way.

The deal between the EU and Turkey to hold back the Syrians and various other groups for the EU deal?  I suspect it's in serious trouble.  I looked at the financial aspects of this.....three billion Euro.  It appears that the EU has already paid Turkey the money.....so if Turkey drops the 'hold-back' deal....the money will NOT come back.

If the money is gone....who gets the blame?  My guess is Chancellor Merkel, who pushed on this deal. If you were looking for a mega-sized mistake that would cost big votes in the two remaining state elections in the fall....this is it.

If the refugees start treking back across the Med to Greece, and walking up to Germany, with tens of thousands arriving monthly?  I would give pretty good odds that Chancellor Merkel would be gone by spring of next year and early elections would be required.

But here's the thing.....all of this lies within Erodgan's control.  He could continue the EU deal and use the EU's demand for 72 law changes to be public advertising for his next political campaign.  Or he could press the EU and threaten them to a higher extent.

All of this leading to AfD's political stance growing?  This is the big question.  Turkey could be the brake on AfD's momentum growing, or the accelerator to rapidly grow support.  Take your pick.

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