Thursday, May 12, 2016

What Happens If the Turkey Refugee Deal Falls?

It's fairly obvious now.....this deal with the EU and Turkey....to hold back the refugees and immigrants there.....is about to fail.  The chief cause is that the EU will only grant the visa-free deal for the Turks....if they make some changes (over seventy) to their travel program.  This won't happen.  The remaining question is when Erdogan will cancel out the deal.  This could be next week, next month, or three months from now.

What happens at that point?

There might be 100,000 immigrants trying to make the run through to Greece.  But there's been fences built along several borders now, and access through will be hard to imagine.

In Germany?  If we go back to the 100,000 folks arriving per month?  The frustrations among Germans and approaching elections would create some tension in Berlin.

It's possible that the SPD might say their participation in a coalition is in trouble, and demand a new federal election (probably occurring by September).  It won't really help the SPD or the CDU.  Finding some replacement for Merkel from the crowd on hand now?  There's no one really standing out.

The odds on AfD and their anti-immigration message?  With 100,000 monthly trying to come in....AfD would have some evidence of chaos to toss at both leading parties.  Across the nation.....if we were looking at some September federal election....I'd take a guess that AfD could take 25-percent of the vote.  This might even provoke the CSU (the Bavarian conservatives) to get into a national campaign and try to edge out some of this vote by the AfD.

As for retribution on Turkey?  There's typically three million Germans minimum.....who travel each year to Turkey on a vacation.  If just fifty-percent of them decide on a personal retribution deal....the Turks are screwed.  They could offer week-long five-star hotel deals with airfare included for 299-Euro and find only limited German interest.

All of this happening....in the midst of a summer period where Greece is in serious financial trouble and needs yet another helping German hand.

It's one of those bad scenarios where everyone is a loser.  

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