Monday, June 27, 2016

BREXIT After the Smoke Clears

There are a number of things that you come to realize after the long weekend, and umpteen hours of news coverage from Germany, the UK, France, and the US....over BREXIT and the UK vote.

1.  It is readily apparent that everyone, from Cameron himself.....all the way to Brussels and the EU crowd, the German leadership in Berlin, and President Obama with his entire team.....all believed that 'stay-in' was going to win.  Either via the polls they read or just a feeling....but they were all prepared for a particular event to occur.

2.  Secretary of State John Kerry arriving today in Europe to do.....well....just some talking.  It's hard to see why he's showing up other than listening to everyone whine about how this all went down.

3.  Across the board, from both significant political parties in the UK, the Scottish leadership, the London leadership, the EU leadership, the French and German get the impression of marginal leaders who are mostly empty-suits.  They were all caught off-guard, and now have to do their best to pretend to be clever and capable enough to lead nations out of some chaos.  The blunt truth is.....they just aren't that clever or capable.

4.  If there ever were a time that the Queen ought to step down, and hand the reigns of power over to Prince William (skipping Prince Charles), this would be the moment because the public needs some other counter-balance on confidence.

5.  The odds of Scotland having an independence referendum?  I'd say it's a 95-percent chance, and will occur before the end of October.  The odds of Northern Ireland holding such a referendum?  Probably closer to 80-percent chance.  The odds of Wales holding such a referendum?  Less than 40-percent chance.  And the London-City exit?  Fifty-fifty.

To be honest, if you were looking for the a massive vehicle of exit of London-City from England would rank a "12" on a one-to-ten scale.  The amount of taxation upon property and business operations would immediately worry people.   I would take a guess that 10-percent of the London-City population would leave within two years.

6.  Frankfurt appears set to pick up a number of business and banking jobs from this whole event.  Some folks in the Hessen region are talking 10,000 jobs.  These aren't the 40,000-Euro-a-year type.....these are all upscale and 75,000 or more type jobs.  Big money and real estate are set to gain in the Frankfurt area.

7.  I think everyone is worried of an effect on the French presidential election for spring of 2017.  Add to that....five state elections in Germany which will have a different character of a campaign because of this event.

8.  With the exception of the Berlin Airlift period, and the Wall crumbling down.....this probably ranks as the third biggest event since 1945.  It's barely started, and could have ramifications that lead on for at least 200 days minimum. You could see a dozen-odd states existing on the isle within a year.  You could see several countries forced into a referendum on the EU and the break-up of their countries.  The EU itself will be challenged.

9.  The Labor and Conservative Parties of the UK?  I suspect by December....that both will have become minor groups and at least two new parties.....maybe even a third new party.....will emerge.  Based on interviews I saw this weekend.....I'd say that Labor Party members are extremely disgruntled with their leadership, and it's very likely that the 'chief' will be fired over the next five days.  If they fail to fire the'll simply open the door for another party to form.

10.  The three big losers from this episode so far?  Labor Party's leader, Jeremy Corbyn, PM David Cameron, and the Pollsters who gave the lead to 'stay-in' to win by four to six points.

11.  The BBC is in an unsettling position.  They are financed by a tax upon the British people.  If Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and London-City were to exit.....there is no BBC.  It'll flip into a mini-BBC operation with less than 30-percent of the current employees.  They won't be able to sustain themselves unless as a small operation.

12.  Worst case scenario?  Twenty different states, city-states, enclaves.....existing in what is the UK today.  Four elections in Europe between now and the end of 2017.....shifted around and anti-EU talk becomes the norm.  The Euro sinks in value to the dollar (currently .91 to the dollar) roughly 1.2 Euro to the dollar.  Recession starts up in the UK, but spreads across to Europe.  NATO is dissolved by 2019.  Some Bavarian frustrated with both EU and Berlin of a Bavarian nation.

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