Tuesday, June 7, 2016

My Trump-Thump Scenario

I have this political scenario in my head.....as we get to the US election in November, and as the German election period starts to heat up in the spring of 2017 (to be held around Oct/Nov of 2017).

There's been various 'Trump-thumps' (my word for a German thumping their chest and talking anti-Trump rhetoric) over the past couple of months.  The CDU folks have avoided this.....the SPD and Greens have been mostly the ones along with the intellectual journalists.....to make this 'line-in-the-sand'.

So, around January and February.....I expect several of the SPD folks to come up and go turbo on Trump-thumps. By April, I think Trump and his administration will come up to hint of a reshuffle in US military forces in Europe.  A month later....I expect the message to come out....the US will leave out of 90-percent of the bases, within three years.....leaving just Ramstein as it's one and only installation in Germany.  Some Army and Air Force personnel will be shuffled along to Poland....some to Italy....and the rest to come back to the US.

The Trump-thump crowd....mostly SPD-led....will be powered up over this demonstration of US silliness (it'll be a word used over and over).....showing Trump to be reckless and unable to be an effective world leader.

About seven days into this SPD-thrilled period....some SPD voters will ask...on the grand scale of top ten problems.....how and why did the dimwits of the SPD back in January make all this rhetoric anti-US and anti-Trump talk? In terms of anti-US, anti-NATO, and anti-Trump.....this issue might rate as problem number 311 of the common issues for a SPD voter.

Attempts to lead common SPD voters back to the anti-US theme by journalists and intellectuals?  Well....it worked two or three times in the past, but since over half of the German public now consider journalists to be lairs and full of deceit....this Trump-thump enthusiasm is dwindling day by day.

Now, we come to the bigger issue.  All of these communities that has a US installation and enjoys millions that flow through because of the US military in their region or city.....now sense a shortfall.  They want a deal like past years where the state and Berlin-government pumped millions into the soon-to-be-acquired US facilities which they will transform into some other great usage and continue money flow into their community.

There's just one problem.....because of the immigration and integration costs....neither the state governments or Berlin-government.....have the money to transform these facilities like they did in the past.

The hostility in these communities toward the SPD mostly, but even the CDU....will be significant.

Then we come to third and most significant issue....with the US downsizing it's NATO situation, there needs to be stronger emphasis among European countries for a real military.  Well....they don't have the money.

Yeah, all that savings and everything.....for twenty years, and now when they realize the necessity and reality of life.....well, the money just ain't there.

By late 2017, as the election starts to approach....the SPD and it's anti-Trump and anti-US talk....should have put the team back up to near 30-percent support among the German public.  Well....it just won't happen that way this time around.  Instead, the SPD might be lucky to get 14-percent of the vote.

How stupid would they be to get into a anti-US and anti-Trump gimmick?  That's the big question.  There is such negativity now existing about politicians sitting in Berlin and not representing the common priorities of German voters....that these guys could be stupid enough to think faking people out on problems will work again.

If there were ever an occasion when a German politician ought to put on a disguise and wander into a local pub to get top ten problem list of regular Germans.....this is it.  But I get the feeling that German politicians really don't want to hear about whats going on in the mind of regular Germans.

1 comment:

Norman Peterson said...

Good observation...and now, what of the AfD? If I'm not mistaken, they would not be adverse to at least a re-jiggering of US forces...and in a campaign, somehow putting a "positive spin" on this position....unlike the SPDs anti US forces position just because they are NATO/US forces....And, if I am not mistaken, the AfD is not hostile to Vladi...Maybe the spin would be that since Russia is not a threat, US forces are not needed in such numbers...Hmmmmmm