Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Polling for June

Focus put up a poll of political trends this morning:

CDU/CSU (combined): 33-percent.

Greens: 13-percent

SPD: 21-percent

Linke Party: 9-percent

FDP: 6-percent

AfD: 11-percent

We are in the midst of a non-political period....with the heat going up in Berlin and Mecklenburg (both eastern states of Germany) in about six weeks as they edge closer to the fall election period.  So far, the deal with Turkey has held firm and immigration into Germany is closer to the 2013 levels.  Course, there is a hint within the news of the last week that smugglers are working up a new route with more Africans than Syrians involved in the route from Libya to Italy.

At present, the key questions for the next federal election are: (1) Who will the CDU put up as the replacement figure for Merkel?  (2) Will the Linke Party dump their pro-asylum platform at the last minute to draw back former supporters?  (3) Will the SPD draw less than 20-percent in the national election? (4) How big a shock will the two fall state elections turn into?

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