Saturday, June 25, 2016

The EU Dominos Game

This odd topic came up yesterday from three or four college professors that I watched as they discussed BREXIT.

So, it's obvious that Scotland will discuss and likely hold a referendum to exit the UK, become it's own 'land' and enter the EU.

It's strongly suggested that Northern Ireland will discuss and likely hold a referendum to exit the UK, to become it's own 'land' and enter the EU.

Two major districts of Wales voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU.  The two districts make up the state of Wales.  It is conceivable that they might ask for a referendum, vote, and exit the UK, to enter the EU.

Then, we come to London. It started as a joke, but by late last night.....some people were talking of a London referendum.....allowing the people of London to vote, possibly leave the UK, become an independent land, and enter the EU.  I know.....it does sound pretty silly.....but everyone has freaked out.

One could take this entire discussion over to Gibraltar....which voted 95-percent to stay in the EU, and they'd view all of this.....to suggest that they want a exit-the-UK referendum to become an independent state.

Things would start to get hazy at this point.

Spain isn't happy over Gibraltar existing, but stood by the game of the UK owning it.  But becoming independent?  A single little nation?  One that fell under the EU?  Spain would seek to quickly stop this and force the chunk of land to be back within Spanish territory, and the Gibraltar folks would seek help from the UK to defend their cause.....not finding that there's really not anyone charged up or happy about this business.

The Falklands?  I'm guessing that they'd want some independence deal and get back into the EU.....but Argentina would suddenly realize how powerless the island was and start up discussion to establish itself as the authority over the island.

By this point, the EU's chief, Jean-Claude Junker.....would be a bit amazed at how the mess developed into a bigger mess.

With these five or six little pieces broken off from the UK....you'd think that we were done.  But no.....there are various issues.

Does London itself leave the UK?  Or does Greater-London leave?  Few realize the actual size of London itself (all north of the river) is actually about the size of DC. But Greater-London?  It's around 50 kilometers by 50 kilometers and includes the national airport.  Greater-London has the Parliament building and Buckingham Palace.

Without Scotland, Falklands, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Greater-London.....why bother even running a massive Parliament complex?  England would have to move it's Parliament out to some lesser city.

But then you start to find the EU in a difficult position.  Perhaps some district of Austria is fed up with the EU.  Maybe the region around Kitzbuhel is frustrated and wants a referendum to exit the Austria and exit the EU?  Perhaps the whole region around Reims, France has a referendum vote and says they want to be free of the EU, and become a separate independent country.

None of this....really fits into the EU game-plan.  If you had a bunch of little small countries trying fit into some country-device and then fit into the EU.....well....the system wasn't designed for that atmosphere.

What defense mechanisms does Wales or Greater-London offer?  Would they be part of NATO?  Very unlikely.  Scotland has strongly hinted that if they ever left the UK, they'd not be a part of NATO.

In one sense, the opposition to the EU was right about one key factor......people have lost their identification as a nation.  They have subjected themselves as being part of the EU.....over being part of the UK.  Intellectuals might argue over this, but comments and actions yesterday set this whole discussion into a concreted position.  There are probably 16-million people who speak English, and live on the isle, but they aren't part of British culture or identification.

In some ways, I think the EU elite are now realizing the monster that they've created, and that this talk of more referendums and exits from the UK.....proves the case that EU has replaced various nation-states.

Oddly, there are two German cities.....which are states unto themselves.  Throughout the last thousand years.....Hamburg and Berlin are referred to as Stadtstaaten (city-states) and Bremen is referred to as the free Hanseatic City of Bremen (which include Bremerhaven as well).

Their history in a way is similar.  They held massive identification to themselves up to the mid-1800s as their own states.  Even when pulled into Prussia.....they still held a special status.  After WW II, the three still held a special city status, and are considered states today (making up three of the 16 German states).

And this urgent talk by the EU to quickly get the UK out?  I would speculate that you really don't want to enter summer of 2017, with negotiations and exit treaties being discussed, with hostile feelings, and the German election period coming up in the fall of 2017.  It's bad enough now that the AfD represents the anti-immigration position of Germany.....but they have always said that they are also anti-EU, and you might find a fair number of Germans who would vote for AfD.....just as their anti-EU frustration vote.

Added to the mess is the May 2017 national election....in France.  And I would take a guess that a quarter of the French population is anti-EU.

It is.....a royal mess.

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