Tuesday, June 28, 2016

The Magic AfD Number on Polls and Reality

After BREXIT, one has to sit down and start to ponder the various scenarios where AfD (the anti-immigrant and anti-EU party of Germany) might go with future elections.

Where are the breaking points on poll numbers and just where does it lead onto?

So, you start with the fact that five state elections are due between now and Oct/Nov of 2017 in Germany (when the national election occurs).

Local numbers right now indicate that AfD has roughly 14-percent of the national polling.  The CDU has around 21-percent, and the sister party....the CSU....has around 8.5 to 9 percent of national polling.....giving them near 30-percent.  The SPD is typically given 19.5 percent.  The Green Party is typically given 13-percent.  The Linke Party is mostly near 8-to-9 percent.  And the FDP usually manages near 5-percent.  The rest are oddball parties which typically don't count.

Remember.....this is national polling....NOT regional polling.

If you go to the eastern states....AfD and the Linke Party both get better numbers.  In Mecklenburg, they are talking about a 20-percent win this fall in the state election for AfD.  The Linke Party might decrease it's numbers because some folks are turning to the AfD.  And with the SPD....things aren't looking great for the Berlin state election.....but the Greens might actually take more than 20-percent of the Berlin election.  AfD is a wild-card in Berlin.....they might go 10-percent.....they might go 20-percent.

The three spring elections?  Well....one of the states is in the regional where Koln rests, and the influence of the New Year's Eve episode will rest heavily upon both the CDU and SPD.  If the AfD crosses the 18-percent point in that election.....it would shock some folks.

If we don't close the United Kingdom exit to the EU by summer of 2017?  Well.....people will ask the brilliant anti-UK journalists at state-run German TV to explain why things are so screwed up?  They really can't clearly answer this.....without insulting both the CDU and SPD....deeply hooked into the EU.

So, let's ask the big question.....what are people angry about right now?  Jobs are Ok.  Finance looks good.  Social reform is needed but never goes anywhere.  Pension reform gets brought up every four years but never fixes issues.  Crime is way up.  Immigration is still a hot topic.  EU regulations (we really needed that toaster and hair dryer regulation badly) exist.  All of these equal frustration topics which center-left and center-right can't address.

AfD ought to pull 16-to-20 percent of the Oct/Nov election ballot nationally in Germany.

So, here's the coalition bad news.

You could end up with the CDU/CSU winning a narrow victor of 27-percent, to be the winner.  How do you reach a national coalition then?

Your marginal friends at the SPD who barely took 18-percent of the election?

Your marginal friends at the Green Party who barely took 16-percent of the election?

Your unacceptable friends at the Linke Party who took 9-percent of the election?

Your FDP buddies who barely took five-percent of the election?

Imagine putting a government together which is CDU-CSU-SPD coalition.  It won't reach 50-percent.

Imagine a CDU-CSU-SPD-Green Party coaltion.  What kind of screwed up coalition government will this be?

Chances of CDU partnering with AfD in any way or shape?  ZERO percent chance.  The CDU would never in a thousand years accept this type of partnership.

The odds of the SPD winning and trying to partner up with the Greens and Linke Party?  It probably wouldn't reach the minimum level of 50-percent.....unless the FDP were also part of this deal.  Four separate parties to form a coalition?  Man, that's a bar-room fight waiting to occur.

Noticed this week how the freaked-up Spanish had to run a second election because they couldn't form a coalition?  Notice how there is talk that a third possible election might occur by January in Spain because of this possible lack of agreement?

The best guess here is that if the CDU-CDU folks don't clear 30-percent, and the AfD does get close to 18-percent nationally.....you will see a very screwed up coalition problem.

There's talk that B-W's Green Party guy.....Winfried Kretschmann....is going to be pulled for duty and run the Green Party chief's job for the national election.  People like his character and charm.  The guy is 68 and that's a negative.  But if he runs.....he would woe away some SPD voters and the Greens might actually get up around 18-percent and hurt the SPD by lessening them to 13-percent (my numbers on this estimation).

The issue here is that the more numbers that AfD can pile up and the lesser numbers combined on the center-right, center-left deal (they always did 65-percent to 80-percent of the national vote)....the more likely that a non-functioning government will occur and beg for a second election like Spain.

Behind all of this.....is the worrisome May 2019 EU Parliament election.  If the SPD and CDU look lousy in 2017.....what do you think happens by May of 2019 as people think about the EU accomplishments and failures?

The bottom line is that at 13-percent....the AfD remains a small but significant pain for the big political parties to deal with.

At near 20-percent....with comical coalition-building between either the SPD or CDU.....they help to create frustrating and frictional type political teaming.....which can't make the public happy under any circumstance.  All of this just leads to an unhappy public waiting for 2021 as the next national election and a chance to really vote to show those silly CDU and SPD guys how angry the general public is.

Just something to think about.

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