Sunday, June 26, 2016

The Monty Python Moment in Scotland

First, a review of what the last round of Scottish Independence delivered.  In September of 2014.....Scotland held it's independence vote....which was a fairly big failure.

Eighty-four percent of the registered population showed up....with 55-percent to stay within the UK, and 45-percent voting to leave the UK. A ten-percent spread.

There's only four of the 30-odd counties which voted in the 50-percent range or more....to vote on leaving (Dumfries voted 65-percent to stay in).

What happens for repeat performance?  It's hard to guess if they can reach the eighty-four percent point again.  Adding to this....if you look at the map of Scotland on the EU vote....it's an interesting thing.

As you get into the more urbanized areas....it is a heavy 60-to-70 percent vote to remain (with one single region getting into the 80-percent range).  But almost sixty-percent of the Scottish territory was in the 50-to-60 percent range.

If you took a hundred Scots who voted 'stay-in-the-EU' and asked them about the leave-the-UK angle....would they be that agreeable?  Would you get above the fifty-percent line?  I'm not that sure.  In 2014, with all the talk and hype.....the best that they could get was 45-percent.

But let's get to the Monty Python scenario in this whole thing.

Let's say that the Scots call for a 1 August referendum.  They meet....85-percent of the public votes....with a 53-percent position to leave the UK.  Great....done.

Well....no.

In this scenario, you look at the map display of voting and discover that the Highland, Moray, and Angus districts (all to the extreme north of Scotland)....voted only 44-percent to exit.  A 56-percent group in the three districts voted to stay in the UK.

Oddly, a day later.....the Highland, Moray and Angus districts stand up and demand an individual referendum for them to exit Scotland.

In fact, the Scottish borders district had a very wide display, with the whole district voting 59-percent to exit the UK.  But along the Berwick-upon-Tweed end (the far eastern side of Scotland, along the coast).....you discover the stay in vote was 57-percent.  So, Berwick-upon-Tweed asks for a referendum for them to exit Scotland as well.

By the end of the week, you've found 12 different instances in Scotland where a town or region wants an independence from Scotland vote.  In fact, you can also find one entire neighborhood of a town....where they want to separate from Scotland....only as one single neighborhood of 200 residents.

As things go in London and they have their own referendum.....their vote goes along the same way with 58-percent voting to leave the UK.  But then.....there's six different neighborhoods who want their own independence from London referendum.

Enclave after enclave.

By December, there is mass confusion across the land, as forty different districts, empires, or lands now exist where the UK as one single government existed before.

Suddenly, the BBC wakes up and now realizes that with so many splits.....no one is willing to pay the TV tax, and they cease operations by 1 March 2017.

But this referendum business has now crossed the channel, and elements of independence now exist in Spain, Netherlands, and Italy.  There are twenty-odd regions which demand their own autonomy and personalized nation status.  The EU is sitting there in the middle of a mess now....that cannot be controlled or repaired.

Oddly, we are actually progressing back to the type of map that existed in 1800.....where a thousand different city-states, empires, kingdoms, or nations existed across all of Europe.

Here's the last thought to take from this.....referendums mean that the public takes a vote and could go in a direction that no one really considered.  If you asked most people in Germany today on a referendum.....if they wanted to pay the TV tax.....the majority (probably 60-percent) would say no.  If you asked the Bavarians about becoming their own nation.....probably 60-percent would say yes.

Keep your passport handy.....you may need it to cross the border into the Kingdom of Liverpool, with Lord Kenny and the Duchess Wanda in charge.

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