Wednesday, July 20, 2016

More Fallout From the Turk Coup

I did a statistical review this morning on Turkey and it's university system.....after it came out that Erdogan has grounded all professors within the country.....allowing none of them to travel beyond the border of Turkey.

There are 180 universities in Turkey.  Of these 104 are state-related, and 71 which are private in nature.  The rest are odd-ball groups (military academies, police academy, etc).

From an article that I found from a decade ago, the number of professors or instructors in the country (for public or state universities) is around 67,000.

From what is suggested in various articles on recent demonstrations.....a high number of college students are anti-Erdogan.  No one cites numbers, but you take a reasonable guess that at least fifty percent in this category.

It would appear that a minimum of 15,000 instructors or university leaders have  been dismissed.  So you can do the math, and figure that around 20-percent of the instructor/professors are gone.

This will mean that in the fall as classes would normally start up.....there won't be enough instructors around to instruct.  A class that would normally be around fifty students.....might be forced to hold one-hundred, or just cancel that class entirely.

The odds of these students staying in Turkey?  If you going for a medical degree or a science degree....they've basically lengthen your class objectives and amount of time you will be there....instead of being on a job.

One might deduct three things from this Erodgan purge:

1.  Universities will be marginally functional in the fall, and probably not see any improvement for the next five years.

2.  From those who survived the terminations....what is to say that another purge won't occur tomorrow.

3.  The future of higher learning in Turkey is mostly now a joke.

So, I'll make these predictions:

- Within the next month.....some Turkish professors who were fired will start to show up in Germany.  The Germans will be perplexed over this new immigrant wave.  By October, they will make one of the strangest strategy episodes in German educational history, by offering jobs to every single Turkish academic who shows up.  These will be within the German university system.  While they finance an entire year of German language and orientation, these instructors will begin in the fall of 2017 and the fall of 2018 to provide instruction.

- My guess is that by the spring of 2017, at least 10,000 such academics will have show up and taken the German offer for jobs.

- In terms of a brain-drain.....Erdogan will have created one of the biggest drains in the past hundred years.

- At least 100,000 young Turks will have left Turkey by the summer of 2017 to study in Germany, under the Turkish instructors/professors.....with most having no desire to return.

- By 2018, Erdogan will have realized the massive mess that he's made, and limit all young men and women from exiting the country.

It's hard to guess where this might end, or how Turkey might find itself back to some stability.  But Germany will likely be in the middle of something once again....whether they like it or not.

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