Monday, August 8, 2016

My Erdogan-Turkey Scenario

Generally, when you go through a coup (real or fake), there are a list of things you need to accomplish, and then you need to suddenly appear "benevolent" about sixty to a hundred days into this.  This means the state of emergency goes away.....some folks get released from prison....one or two of the banned newspapers get activated....life starts to appear normal.  Well.....at least in the normal book of coups that occur in Asia or Latin America.

There hasn't really been a coup in Europe since Romania.....or if you were talking western Europe....probably Greece.  

With Erdogan, it's hard to tell if this might go the normal way.

So, my scenario goes to roughly four to six months out, and out in some province somewhere.....a thirty-year old guy gets arrested for some trumped-up involvement in anti-government activity.  His dad....a big pro-Erdogan guy then shows up with some cousins or workers from his factory, and there's some violence at the cop station.  Some folks get shot, and suddenly you got all kinds of heck breaking loose in this town, with the cops locked down.

Erdogan decides that the military needs to step in.  Well....after the last episode....the last thing on Earth that the Turkish military will do is leave the barracks during violence.  So they refuse the order.

Some other angry people come out, and a whole section of Turkey is hyped up on chaos.

Along about this time, there's talk of ISIS now in Turkey.....maybe it's the real ISIS.....maybe it's a fake ISIS....but Erdogan and his Istanbul crowd are trying to figure out where the heck this threat came from.

Over a matter of four weeks....civil war is being staged in one area of Turkey, and there's talk of troops being ordered to the region, but they refuse to participate because of the past abuse by Erdogan.

Six months into this civil conflict, all people know is that whatever Syrian-type conflict existed.....it's now a Turkey-ISIS conflict, with anti-Erdogan folks also participating.

The EU and Merkel are standing there.....150,000 Turkish refugees a month coming into Greece, and begging for asylum or refugee status in the EU.  Erdogan is asking for Russian help now.....in the same way that Syria asked for help.  The US?  They'd packed up and evacuated every single GI in Turkey and taken the nukes safely with them.

By the end of 2017, Germans are sitting around in amazement at how fragile Erdogan's government really was, and wondering how exactly they can prevent this from spreading.  Some talk of a partition occurring and putting Istanbul in a safe zone, with German, French and US troops protecting the area.
Maybe I'm out on the far side of this scenario business, and maybe this will all conclude in 60 to 100 days with the normal relaxation game played out.  One would certainly hope that.

1 comment:

Norman Peterson said...

Or...Erdogan will make common cause with ISIS, co-oping them to realize his ultimate immediate goal of ousting Assad...and adding Syria to a "greater Turkey"...also known as the new Ottoman Empire...with ISIS as his shock troopers. He will have an eye on Iraq and Iran in the future as the situation dictates...and may try to have NATO come to his aid if/when Russia objects....which NATO will respond..NOT in your wildest dreams, Mr Erdogan. Putin will then proceed to make good his comment on making Constantipole a "Christian" city once more..with the blessings of the Russian Orthodox Church...and the approval of NATO...and the EU..