Wednesday, August 31, 2016

My German Lose-Lose-Lose Scenario for the 2017 Election

There are various scenarios where a minor shift or a major shift in politics and change can occur out of the November 2017 German national election.  Between now and then, there are five state elections which will all have influence on the national scene.

So this is the worst of the worst scenario that I can throw out there, which would trigger a fair amount of worry and frustration to the typical Germany.

- The CDU ends up with a fairly weak choice for Chancellor after a fight within the party apparatus.  Because of this.....their numbers in polling diminish.

- The SPD ends up with Gunter Gabriel as their lead candidate as Chancellor.....doesn't clearly appeal to the mass of normal SPD voters but he's carrying on a new platform of anti-immigrant.  The problem is that half of the SPD normal voters are pro-immigrant and they clearly aren't happy with this shift.

- The Linke Party has around one-third of their normal supporters frustrated with their pro-immigrant platform.

- The Green Party finds itself in a perfect position to collect not only carry all of their normal voters but also a small number of SPD members who are pro-immigration.

- The AfD Party finds itself pumped up with several surprising state elections and suddenly focused on significant national trends.

- And out of the far outside of the ring.....comes the FDP and Pirate Party.  Each come with a revitalized agenda and a clearly focused group.

My guess on the vote if this lose-lose-lose scenario played out:

CDU: 23-percent
CSU:   8.5-percent
SPD:  18-Percent
Green Party: 12-percent
Linke Party:  6.5-percent
FDP: 5-percent
AfD: 21-percent

The rest would go to parties without the 5-percent requirement to proceed forward.

The CDU would find out that the Bavarian sister party (the CSU) won't partner up unless their candidate is the chancellor choice.....so the CSU is not going to figure into a new gov't run by the CDU.  Problem number one.

Zero partnership in a coalition between the CDU and AfD. Problem number two.

Partnership with CDU and SPD won't reach the sufficient numbers for a two-party coalition.  Problem number three.

The Green Party will agree to a junior partnership with the CDU-SPD deal....but they want one-third of all minister positions, and the vice-chancellor position.  Problem number four.

The FDP is drawn into a third-partner deal with the CDU-SPD, but find that their request for the vice-chancellor position and one-third of all minister positions is too much. Problem number five.

No chance of a CSU-Linke Party match-up, period.  Problem number six.

Handing the coalition government down to the SPD-Green Party-Linke Party option?  It won't be enough seats to run a coalition government.  Problem number seven.

Within sixty days, everyone agrees.....another election is required.  Going into Feb of 2018.  Problem number eight.

The CDU sensing their chancellor candidate is too weak.....dump the individual and go to another choice, which gets the public to asking if there are any strong CDU candidates left.  Problem number nine.

The SPD decides to dump Gunter Gabriel.....saying they feel he is too weak.  Some SPD members are disenchanted about dumping Gabriel.....so they leave.  Problem number ten.

I won't go and another "lose" to this episode in describing the 2nd election being required because of a lack of a coalition government, but it's obvious.....it won't help the CDU or SPD to go into another entire election.

There are better scenarios out there and ought to occur.  But this is about the worst case scenario that you could dream up.

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