Sunday, August 7, 2016

My List of German Events If Trump Wins in November

This is simply my list of things that I think will likely occur after November, if Trump wins the US election:

1. A concentrated effort to label any policy within the Trump administration by the SPD Party as immature and childish....thus giving them a fake agenda item for the fall of 2017's German national election.

2.  A US decision to shut down the vast majority of military installations within Germany....leaving Ramstein and EUCOM Headquarters in Stuttgart as the only two areas left within Germany.

3. Drastically reducing the US military footprint in Europe period, which leaves the SPD political folks really pushed to explain how this is "bad", and how they object to it.  These political forums will laughed at by some Germans.  

4.  German journalists hyped up over a fake but realistic threat of Russia being a military threat to Germany.

5.  Eventual German shock that neighboring countries don't really see Trump foreign policy shift as negative.  Neighbors such as France, Hungary, Poland and Austria end up with either a neutral or positive view of Trumps policies.

6.  Reality hitting the German public that the anti-Trump, anti-US, anti-military talk by the SPD is pushed as a number one problem.....when immigration, asylum, and crime are really the number one issues for the fall campaign.

7.  A shock poll by August that almost 50-percent of Germans don't see much wrong with Trump or policy changes.

8.  Over the first hundred days of the Trump administration....two trips to Europe will occur.  The first will involve stop-overs in the UK, Poland, and Russia.  The second coming after the French President change-over....will involve stops in Austria, France, and Greece. If you were German, it'd be obvious that there is some strategy here and it'll be hyped up that Germany isn't on Trump's favorite country list (but German wasn't really ever on Obama's favorite country list either, if you were to think about it).

9.  Trump's likely new military policy involves removing all US nukes from Europe.....which will leave the anti-Trump German politicians at an odd position. This was the leftist dream for decades, and only Trump could deliver it.  Journalists will hours trying to convince the public that this was a bad decision and very immature, with most Germans not really believing the slant on the story.

10.  Over the first year.....at least three face-to-face meetings between Putin and Trump.....will leave the German intellectual crowd, the anti-Trump players, and German journalists at an odd position of criticizing US-Russia relations.

If you were looking for 'real change' (like being mentioned in 2008)....this Trump-change (if the election goes this way).....will be something that hasn't been seen in Europe in decades.....my humble opinion.

1 comment:

Norman Peterson said...

Good post...However, I don't think Trump will close as many bases as you think...some, yes, remove the nukes, yes...and the ones that are closed, will actually be relocated...to reflect new strategic thinking... (Think Ottoman Empire) Given the historic enmity between Russia and Turkey, it won't be long before Erdogan stabs Russia in the back over Syria...Erdogan has this idea of investing Syria as the first act of the new Ottoman Empire, with ISIS as his new "shock troops"...