Wednesday, August 3, 2016

The 2017 Elections in Europe

2017 promises to be a major election year for Europe.

For the remainder of 2016....two German state elections will come up, and the AfD will likely take 20-to-24 percent of the vote in Mecklenburg......with Berlin's result probably half that number.

2017:

- Czech Legislative Election: Sep/Oct time period.

- French Presidential Election: Primary set for late April.  Main election between the two top candidates for 7 May.  Right now with Hollande.....it's dismal numbers and zero chance that he'll be among the final two.  Roughly only around 10-to-15 percent of the public give him positive numbers, and I don't see this changing by spring.

- French Legislative Election: mid-May.

- Internal vote within Bundestag of Germany for new President (not Chancellor) set for spring. This is a ceremonial type position but everyone and their brother (even non-political folks) are putting their names out there.  They could go as radical as possible and vote some soccer coach into the job....or retired actor.  It will be an election of Bundestag members and representatives from the 16 states.....no public votes....and it'll be over in roughly four hours after they start the ballot process (potentially up to three rounds).  Personally, I'd like for Joachim Low, the German national soccer coach to get the nod but he says he's busy through the World Cup of 2018.

- National German election set for Sep/Oct time period.

- Hungarian Presidential Election: It could occur as early as October 2017, or as late as April 2018.

- Dutch General Election: mid-March 2017.

- Norwegian General Election: August to October period of 2017.

- Serbian Presidential Election: May 2017.

- Three general legislative state elections in the March to May period in Germany for 2017.

What all this means?  The trend of the re-do in the Austrian election, with the security threats that now exist, BREXIT, and the Turkey coup....along with continued immigration woes....brings a new dynamic into play for most of these European elections.

What would never have occurred five years ago.....voting for right-wing type parties and candidates....is now not that impossible.  It does not mean a better government, or fixes all these issues which people are hyped up about.....but people are frustrated that things aren't getting fixed with solution version 1.0.  So they are willing to try something radical.

I should note....by this swing to the right side of the pendulum....it also means the center-right and center-left political parties are losing their players, and some far left-wing groups are gaining some membership.  Within five or six years.....they will be playing big-time in upcoming elections.

I'll also point out....the EU elections are not until 2019....giving two years for various governments to flip.  It is possible that a large segment of the current crew sitting in the EU....will be "fired" in 2019, and replaced with one-quarter to one-half of the membership being right-wing.

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