Monday, August 1, 2016

The EU-Turkey Deal: Finished?

Yesterday, Turkey set out a deadline and expectation to the EU about the visa-exemption for them, as part of the refugee deal which Chancellor Merkel worked up.  They expect this to start in early October.  So, they'd like to know how it'll work.  You can kinda guess how the EU feels about this, and that there's almost zero chance that they'd offer the free visa deal now.

What really has happened here?

The EU, Merkel, the Syrians, and the news media.....have been played for chumps.  Erdogan has used them as the backdrop for his agenda.....over and over, and over.

You can predict this visa deal to play out this way.  The EU will keep quiet till the end of August, and lay out the "no" to the Turks.  It'll be a two-liner at best.....saying the time isn't right, and the state of emergency and continuing lack of stability prevent them from approving this.

The Turks will then say the refugee deal is ended.  Within a week, at least 20,000 Syrians will be dumped off at some beach point and expected to pay some Turkish smugglers to get them to the nearest Greek isle.

Some things have changed over the past six months and the Syrians who attempt this walk up to Germany will find various borders closed off and fences erected.  At best, the Syrians will only be able to reach mainland Greece, where they will find that Greeks aren't all that happy or willing to help them.  Within 30 days of the new Turk policy, at least 50,000 Syrians will be in Greece.  Some will find their way over to Italy, or perhaps erect a new walking trail to Germany.

By December, a wave of 150,000 Syrians will hit Germany, and continue through for months to come.

An effect on elections in Germany?  Yes.  This change could have an effect on the two state elections for this year, and the three state elections for the spring of 2017....helping the AfD Party gain votes.

The CDU and SPD folks?  Unwilling to change, both will be branded as 'being upon a sinking ship' by early 2017.  Even as you look across at the Green Party and Linke Party....their inability to solve this issue will be considered a negative.

But here's the thing, if you think about it.  Erdogan didn't just start up this fake agenda business or get through this fake coup as some recent thing.  If you start to go back to 2013 and the whole Syrian civil war, you have to wonder who was helping ISIS in the beginning and who was providing guns and ammo.  Turkish smugglers and gun merchants?  Yeah.....they were there on day one of the civil war and probably still working the game today.

The Turk smugglers helping to funnel Syrians across the sea to Greece?  They connect back to the Erdogan government in some way.

Erdgoan and his crew have used the EU, Germany, the Syrians, and just about everyone else.  No matter who you are part of their opera and dance to their tune.

If you want to get their attention, limit import of their goods....identify Turkey as a possible dangerous place for European tourists....and isolate Erdogan on his stage.

The sad thing here is that Germans will have to watch for weeks and weeks on their political chat show forums.....this dissolving mess, and have to hear German politicians chat about how it's unfair and they'd like to fix this. These forums will become comical in nature and not taken seriously.

So, settle up a beer, and prepare for a five-star opera of sorts to commence.  There will be plenty of singing, woes and sorrows, and toward the end, some fat lady will end this mess.

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