Wednesday, August 3, 2016

The Year After the American Election

While there is still potential for Hillary Clinton to edge out a win in November.....on the marginal level of enthusiasm existing presently and the odds of half of Bernie-supporters staying home or voting Trump....it's mostly high odds that Trump will come out with a win.  What happens in Germany and Europe after the win?

Historically, in a German election year, with a Republican sitting in the White House....the SPD Party (center-left) utilize rhetoric to make the evil demon of the US (especially the Republican President) the chief problem.  You would think that they'd be talking over pension reform, immigration, refugees, crime, etc.....but on several occasions of the past fifty-odd years....the demon platform gets heavily used.

In this case, I think that the Foreign Minister (Steinmeier) will be the leader of the pack and often use public occasions to criticize new US foreign policy.  "Immature", "childish", and "threatening" will be common words used in his speeches.  Trump will probably allow the first three or four occasions to pass without much comment.  By late February, Trump will lay out a speech that slams the behavior of Steinmeier.

Over the next three or four months....various SPD members will come to defend Steinmeier and be part of the anticipated big build-up of the SPD party for the election in November of 2017.....hoping to use this anti-Trump momentum for their recovery phase.

The CDU will remain mostly quiet because this election year tactic isn't their game but they know that historically......the SPD gains votes because of the tactic and there isn't much that the CDU can do in defense of Trump.

So, as mid-summer rolls around and Germans are quietly asking stupid questions because they'd really like to go back to the priorities.....pension reform, crime, immigration and refugees....several impact episodes occur.

The US makes the decision that fewer troops in Germany are needed, and moving to reshape the shift of the bulk of the US Army troops to Poland.  Various communities with the US basing operations are a bit shocked over the speed discussed and the financial impact on their communities.

Steinmeier states the obvious comment....this was done without consulting Germany and "reckless" (another popular word to be seen often in 2017).

As Germans come to October and the last month of election talk....it'll be obvious that bad relations now exist between Germany and the US....but frankly, that's not the issue that most Germans are concerned about.  They want solutions on immigration, pension reform, crime, and refugees.  The SPD will be sitting there with no real enthusiasm for the common issues....preferring to use the anti-American slant instead.

With right-wing governments elected in Austria and France by this point.....reality is settling into place.  The public swings almost 25-percent of the vote in the German election toward AfD.....with the SPD barely able to reach 15-percent of the vote and one of the worst losses since 1949.  The CDU still comes out slightly ahead of the AfD but putting a coalition government together will be practically impossible....unless they partner with the Greens and SPD.

A new government comprised of CDU/Greens/SPD?  Yeah.....a fairly difficult group which will not find many successful interests.

The US now?  Lesser relations with Germany.  Most US military installations will be padlocked and closed by 2020.  Ramstein will still be around, but most other facilities will have shut down.

What happens to the SPD?  I think there will be some people who are disgusted with the strategy used and half of the top level of members will pick this occasion to retire from politics.  Steinmeier will quietly retire and write a book.  Several of the top members of the CDU will be angry over the new government coalition....picking this point to resign.

Trust in journalism will suffer because few Germans will buy the typical intellectual arguments given off state-run television chat forums.  Some German around 2020 will write a book which identifies the new German trait of "malaise".....an unhappiness with politics in Germany, frustration about an immigration and refugee policy that can't be fixed, and crime ever present in their daily lives.  There will be continual talk of this being the time to trim the TV tax and lessen the state-run media empire that exists in Germany.

The AfD?  Because all of the players in the pro-immigration game are still in charge and still working with the same gameplan.....the AfD will center it's efforts on state elections. By 2021, the next German election will involve a mostly weak SPD, a limited Green Party, and a CDU party without enthusiasm.  The AfD has tons of potential in the 2021 election.....mostly because of the errors in the 2017 election period.

I would prefer not to write a vastly negative scenario of what is going to be played out.....but it's hard to see the German public getting leadership focused on the problems at hand.  It's almost like they know they can't fix the problems.....so it's best to blame new issues on someone else (preferably outside of Germany).

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