Up until the last month, it would have been hard to see the SPD win the 2017 national election. Now? They might have some marginal chance.
Since the threat has been laid down that the Bavarian CSU folks may not be a partner with the CDU unless there is a yearly limit on refugees (requiring a government swing of both the CDU and SPD)...there's been no movement. A number of CDU folks have said they won't approve of such a limit.
So, this is my scenario:
1. The CDU shows up with a marginally attractive chancellor candidate to replace Merkel. When the smoke clears....without the 8.5-percent CSU vote....the CDU barely clears 20-percent. Anger and frustration are blamed by the normal CDU public over the immigrant problems and terror acts.
2. The SPD show up and find that their pro-Immigrant attitude also doesn't sell that well, but they somehow swing 24-percent of the national vote. Enough to win. With a combined vote tally of 44-percent.....the two main parties of Germany have the worst election in modern history and not even getting half of the vote.
3. The AfD ends up with 20-percent of the national vote and shows a strong standing.
4. The coalition situation? This becomes interesting....because it'll have to be a SPD-Green Party-Linke Party team. All pro-immigration, if you really stand back to view the landscape.
All of this leads to January 2018 and the next four years as being a very chaotic period.....right-wing extremism existing because of the pro-immigrant standing of the government. The pro-immigration message by the state-run news media (ARD and ZDF) ends up making them a major target of the opposition. TV taxes are talked about and massive reform of the two networks. The coalition government does their best to keep reform from happening.
As state elections occur over this next four years.....it'll swing widely toward AfD as more and more of the public are frustrated with a lack of change.
As November 2021 comes around, some Germans are shocked....the CDU is barely able to get 12-percent nationally, and the AfD is showing 32-plus percent.....enough to win.
My humble opinion is that the 2017 race is fairly important, but on down the line....by 2021....there are serious consequences coming up for Germany and a massive shift to be demanded by the public which the main parties just kept refusing to consider.