Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Explaining to a German How Hillary Lost

So, the dust has settled and there's some Germans standing there....shaking in disbelief and looking for an American to question and answer to why Hillary didn't win.  The logic is not ever going to be explained to them by some ARD or ZDF state-run TV news guy.  Those are the journalists who spent an entire year telling Germans and hyping up the win-possibility to such a degree....so they probably aren't that trusted now.  Hundreds of Americans around Germany....maybe a couple thousand will be asked about this.  So, this is basic introduction on how you explain this to the poor German guy or gal.

1.  You lead off and ask the German who is questioning about this.....how did they arrive at their presumed logic that she'd win?  Did they watch Channel One (ARD) or Channel Two (ZDF)?  My assumption is one or the other.  So, then you suggest to them.....that whoever the state-run TV journalists were getting their info from.....were wrong...extremely wrong.  Then you might want to suggest that sometimes.....journalists lie (don't say "luegenpresse", that's some trigger word for pro-AfD talk), but use softer phrase like 'facts are hard to sometimes swallow'.

2.  So then you ask if they've heard about all this WikiLeaks business.  Sadly, you must suggest to your associate that for three months....WikiLeaks has published insider info from the Democratic Party and close people to Hillary Clinton.  All of these leaked emails.....made Hillary's inner circle (not just her) look like political manipulators.  Ask your associate if they knew that various journalists (NY Times, CNN, etc) were also part of the WikiLeaks leaked emails.  If the German seems dazed by this news.....let them know that maybe some day....years from now....ARD or ZDF will run a massive sixteen hour special detailing all these emails.  Well....maybe (refer to hell freezing over prior to this).

3.  Then you go to this odd topic of the Iowa Caucus period of 2008 (her first attempt to run for President).  For a year, Hillary had her team in and out of Iowa.....showing her great image and practical talents. In January of 2008.....Hillary lost to a no-name Senator from Illinois in the Caucus.  Why?  Several networks went back briefly to cover this and ask.  Well....what the Iowa folks said was revolved around two issues.  Her highly-paid team just never seemed able to connect her or their message to the general public.  She spent tons of money....which just flushed right down into nothing.  The second issue which was publicly discussed.....she just didn't have enthusiasm or charm (unlike her husband, Bill).  Iowa folks noticed this.  When you go and look at the Bernie Saunders campaign of 2016.....oddly, he was hyped up and had some weird charm.  Hillary?  It just wasn't there.

4.  So you bring up the age issue.....not her age but that of American voters.  Folks over 40 years old know Hillary and the Bill-thing.  Folks under thirty years old?  Much less so.  No one knows Bill Clinton or associates Bill with charm or character.....so Hillary really didn't get that much mileage out of Bill except with the over-40 crowd.

5.  Then you move this weird topic......blacks and Latinos just weren't that hyped up for Hillary Clinton.  Maybe sixty to seventy percent still voted against Trump.....but a fair number of blacks and Latinos (traditionally all democratic votes).....went to Trump.

6.  Then you raise this odd feature of the email server.  For some folks who are independents.....the topic just never got settled.  The key story from day one?  It didn't settle.....it changed week after week.  When stories change.....that usually means some lie is underway.  So, a fair number of independent votes were lost in this manner.

7.  Why so many idiots voted for Trump?  Why were so many idiots going anti-immigrant in Germany and going against the state-run TV theme of the "good German"?  When this intellectual one-star argument starts up for "idiots" or stupid voting....one might assume they are brilliant and know precisely how to handle X, Y and Z.  Are there "good Americans" like "good Germans"?  Why can't everyone just think the same way and always vote the right way?  Man, we'd only need one party then....right?

8.  So you get to this question in the mid of most Americans.....why do American political figures now seem so fraudulent (both parties)?  This actually drew a lot of Americans to examine Trump because they are fed up with traditional fake politics.  You don't want to scare the German guy.....because he might realize that the great CDU versus SPD fight.....is a fraud as well.

9.  Then you come to the Hillary health issue, and ask the German....if her conditions relate to Parkinsons.  He'll suggest that's all a lie.....so you ask....do people with pneumonia recover in one week?  Does he know any single German who has had pneumonia and recovered in a week.....ever?

10.  Then you come to the polling division.  Oddly, a number will admit on camera now....that when pollsters called and asked for who'd they'd vote for....they gave the typical slant....not wanting to admit that they would likely cross the line.  How many gave false readings to the pollsters?  Way past the hundreds of thousands.  Why admit this on camera?  That might be worth asking. Could this same problem occur in Germany?  Well....yes.

11. Then you come to university students.  From the crowd that might have voted for Obama in 2008 or 2012....of a hundred university students....how many would go right back out and vote for Hillary?  It's obvious that enthusiasm just wasn't there.

12.  So you come to this final 'lesson'.  Democracy only works, if you allow people the privilege of voting.  If you don't want them to do bad or stupid things.....then arrange it for some Kaiser or dictator to run a country and just skip all this irresponsible voting crap.  Remind them.....they installed all the various characters in Berlin 2013, who helped to bring the refugee crisis to the level that exists today.  Democracy and voting also helped to arrange the EU rules back two decades ago to ensure the entry of bankrupt Greece, and helped to run up this Ukraine war business on their attempt to join the EU.

13.  The "change box".  Finally, you come to this odd part of Americana in 2008....where a Democrat for President hyped the campaign and promised to bring change.  People were waiting for that, and kept waiting.  They never saw it.  You can ask the German what really changed from 2007 to today, and they will just gaze at your face and shake their head.  Some idiot opened this 'change box' topic and people got all peppy about this....expecting it.  So, here's this other guy.....who probably is way outside of the DC norm and likely to give some realistic change. Ask the German....wouldn't he take the same risk and ask for the change box to get opened as well?

Germans won't like your answers, and will insist that something is wrong with American democracy.  Your comeback to this suggestion is that what Americans hate most....are intellectual-types who suggest there is only one single solution, one single theme, or one single candidate.  Intellectual intimidation, to most Americans is just a 'bully-type' behavior...something that is rather childish in nature.

Then hug the German....offer them a beer....or hand them a Marlboro to smoke, and just tell them to get over it.  People could have voted in numbers back in March for Bernie, gotten him up against Trump, then won, and you'd have a die-hard 300-percent socialist who'd make even German socialism look 'wussy'.  "Alles gut" is the phrase to end your emotional talk with your German friend as you wipe the tears from their face.  Please don't mention to him or her that you voted for Trump....it just won't sit well, I think.

Maybe in 2017....some German politician will utter the phrase...."Machen Deutschland wieder groƟ" and you will just grin because you know that "Make Germany great again" started with Trump....the grandson of a Pfalz immigrant to America.

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