For those curious about the sixteen German states, and who is coming up in 2018 for an election:
- Baviara (fall)
- Hessen (fall)
- Lower Saxony (early spring)
From the last 2013 election in each of the three states....AfD was not a factor or a player in the election. For 2018.....it's likely a different story.
Lower Saxony would normally be more leaning toward the CDU Party, with the SPD coming fairly close. The Greens and FDP reached the 5-percent point or better in the 2013 election. No one has done polling there, so it's hard to say if AfD is 10-percent or beyond.
Bavaria? The CSU typically carries 40-to-50 percent of the vote. Out of 11-million typical voters....last time, there were almost one million votes cast for various parties (more than ten) that did NOT take a 5-percent or more win in the election. That kinda says a lot about multi-party success stories. AfD? It wasn't in the 2013 Bavaria election....so you can't project out much. The CSU is fairly right-wing....so it's hard to imagine the AfD going further out than them....especially in Bavaria.
Hessen? The CDU in the last election took 38-percent of the state voting, and the Greens took third place with 11-percent....and the two created a unique relationship (so far it works). The SPD took around 30-percent. Again, in the 2013 election....the AfD was not part of the story. If you asked me on practical numbers (non-existent with polls right now)....I'd take a guess that AfD is only around 6-to-8 percent in the state. The Hessen city council election was in 2016, and did shock some folks with a few cities of Hessen throwing roughly 15-percent of the vote toward AfD.
As long as AfD take 10-percent or more in the three states....then the landscape will remain the same and everyone's big anticipation will be in the spring of 2019, with the EU election. AfD might be able to swing 15-percent of the national vote and get seats in the EU, with right-wing French, Polish, and Dutch members. That would scare the typical German journalist a bit.