Saturday, January 28, 2017

The Return of Guttenberg?

Today, if you open a Speigel magazine, there is this simple article laid out....former Minister of Defense for Germany....Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg....going to be part of the 2017 CSU Bundestag election campaign.

A big deal?

For roughly a decade, Guttenberg was quietly walking toward the Chancellorship and probably regarded as the guanteed replacement to Chancellor Merkel.  In this period of 2010....it was felt that when 2013 arrived....Merkel would retire and Guttenberg would be the chief candidate for the CDU/CSU.

Well....things fell apart.  This was caused by an audit of the university thesis that Guttenberg wrote twenty years earlier.  Yeah, as amusing as it sounds....some folks got ahold of the thesis, and ran it through various programs, and established as a fact that parts of it were plagiarized.  In Germany, that's about one step worse than having an affair with a trailer-trash gal, or doing crack or meth.  In a matter of weeks....Guttenberg gave up his position within the government, and within the CSU Party....then packed up and left Germany (becoming a foundation analyst in the US).

Since then?  Guttenberg has quietly become some authority on technolgy and politics for the CDU and CSU.  They quietly fly him in.....he sits at a table and explains how things work or the inner-workings of some new technology, and he is basically invisible to the German news media.

Giving interviews to the German news media?  Guttenberg rarely if ever does that.  He has mostly sworn off public attention in Germany.

The thing is....in any debate or public session....there simply isn't anyone as bright or as articulate as Guttenberg, period. He does his homework....knows the construction of the topic, the finer points, and the weakness of the debate.  He leaves the audience mostly convinced that he is correct on whatever position he picks.

Why this BILD story on Guttenberg getting more public time with the CSU election in Bavaria matters?

Let's say that the CSU stages a round-table talk on national topics for the September national election, and puts it on BR (the regional network).....it means that virtually everyone in Germany (not just Bavaria) will be able to watch the discussion, and view Guttenberg tearing into the topic and establishing some new baseline.

Strangely enough....Guttenberg hasn't said much over immigration, asylum, or integration for the past five years.  Nor has he commented on crime or integration.  So there is this empty void where he could take a complicated topic and in forty minutes shift a great deal of thought process into this and redraw the whole discussion for the SPD, the CDU and Chancellor Merkel.  They'd have to go and answer to the invisible-man.

The odds of the AfD establishing any significant numbers in Bavaria?  Zero.

None of this means that Guttenberg is coming back or a player in the CSU Party.  He's there to stir the pot and make people think.  Course, if the news media isn't able to re-hype his plagiarism business, and he makes a frontal assault on the CDU and SPD....there's this odd business of the 2018 Bavaria state election.  If Guttenber cleans the old mess out and gets good print-press, then he might be the CSU for replacement for CSU's Seehofer (he's approaching retirement).  All of this would reset the stage for 2021 and make it a very interesting period ahead.

So if you see this casually tossed into the German news....it's a interesting twist that could be occurring.

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