Sunday, February 12, 2017

French Election Observations

Polling in the French Presidential is showing two remarkable stories that will likely unfold.

1.  There is no doubt that Le Pen of the National Front will be one of the final two folks for the May election.  Presently, she leads against the dozen-odd candidates with roughly 26-percent of the votes.  The number two person?  It will depend a great deal on Fillon (the right-of-center guy) and whether he stays in this election.  Six weeks ago....he was clearly at 21-percent and likely to be number two.

Today, because of Fillon's problems with his wife and kids taking fake jobs for fake pay....he's sitting at 17-percent.  In fact, he's reached a point where he doesn't argue much on the story.....just saying it was totally legal (which it was).  A decade ago....French people would have accepted that.  Today....no, it's not being accepted.

So number two is the Liberal Party guy....Macron (more less left-of-center, and a fair amount of mystery to most French voters).

In a Fillon-Le Pen election.....Fillon would have had a slight edge in the May final election (figure 10 points spread).

2.  If this is a Macron - Le Pen election in May?  The poll folks (more than three or four) are showing that Macron can probably take 56-to-60 percent.  Le Pen can't overcome that (44-percent is the best that she shows).

Is the election over?  No.

It's been a shocker that Fillon's story with the fake work/fake job business came out.  There is more than enough time for another story over Macron to arrive and suggest that he's unfit for the job, or he has some problems in his closet.

The chief problem I see with Macron is that he's only 39 and his life story hasn't exactly been told in full rich detail.  As well....debates with him haven't occurred yet with Le Pen.  He would have to be fairly sharp and clear with debate comments to prevent any loss of voters.

Like the US election....we may be surprised at the outcome in the end.

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