Friday, February 10, 2017

On the Discussion of Snowden

There are a number of news sources which picked up on a story last night.....that Russia might go ahead and send Snowden back to the US.....to get some favors with the US.  Has Russia said this publicly? NO.   It's simply rumors.

The odds that Snowden might be dumped to the US?  I'd give it a fifty-fifty shot.

What happens with the German court order on Merkel and the coalition government....ordering them to bring Snowden in for the truth-commission episode against the NSA?  In some ways....they'd be saved from a major problem (denying the US extradition papers).

Would Germany go and rush this now.....urgently trying to get Snowden out of Russia?  It would make sense....if someone were going to really benefit off some Snowden appearance at a German truth-commission. I have my doubts that the CDU Party or SPD Party really want Snowden to appear....it's mostly the opposition parties (Linke and Greens).

I would imagine over the next week or two....some intellectual German TV chat forum will occur, where the whole NSA thing and Snowden is discussed and some folks make the argument that this guy needs to be immediately brought out.   Could Russia halt his exit?  Probably so.  Would this be some Cold War type of evacuation episode....sneaking Snowden out via some submarine or tunnel?  I doubt that....but it'd have to be some quiet operation where he just crosses borders and ends up on some Finnish ferry.

Odds of happening?  I give it a 51-percent chance at this point....more than likely to happen.

It would remove any value of continuing the truth-commission in Germany and arrange for a safe election in the fall....with the anti-Trump position being marginally a problem.

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