Friday, February 17, 2017

The AI Computer Story

In the summer of 2016, a majority of national polls being used for the US presidential election came to conclude that nationally....Hillary Clinton would have more votes than Trump, and thus would win.

A handful looked at individual states and came to conclude that there was an unbalance to the national polls.....they weren't looking at particular bits of data.

Yesterday....the Leonie Hill Capital company....an investment company out of Singapore....said that they had run a lot of data through their AI system (not just polling data)....and came to conclude that the French election will be won by Le Pen.

If you look at every national poll in France.....they all say that Macron will win by a minimum of 5 points....some by 10 points.

So, it is a shocker in some ways.  I would imagine part of the trend not seen is frustration levels by the public on the EU.  Last week, I noticed some France-poll which suggested that two-thirds of the public wants to limit EU actions.  This might play into the whole Le Pen-might win idea.

The shock upon the German news media if Le Pen wins?

Back on 9 November, I awoke to observe some serious degree of disbelief by the German news people.  They were mostly quiet, and unable to comprehend what had happened in the US.  Basically....for almost a year, they'd preached the results would be Hillary Clinton, period.

You tend to see that trend building now for Macron (the progessive-liberal guy).  Now that Fillon has falled back because of the fake-pay deal for his wife and kids.....most news journalists cannot see any possible end other than Macron beating Le Penn.

If Le Penn wins?  It sets up a group of unusual events.  There's not just the Brits who have a problem with the EU....it'll involve the France now.  The immigration fix that Merkel worked up with Turkey? The three billion Euro that the EU ships off yearly to Erdogan?  It might end shortly....then what?  Germany might actually have to say in a firm way....it won't accept more immigrants.  It's something that none of the Berlin-crowd (all four big parties) wants to say in a public statement.

Do I put much into this AI prediction?  No.  There are probably a hundred factors to the Trump win back in November, and if Le Pen wins....it'll be the same way....a hundred factors that fell into place. But if she does win....this AI computer thing will start to be used more often and reset the stage for future predictions.  Maybe that's a good thing.

No comments: