Monday, February 13, 2017

The Timing of the Snowden - Russia Statement

This weekend, in various news pieces, it's come out that Russia wants to talk to the US and possibly send Snowden to the Americans in some way to gain favor.   How true is the statement?  Unknown.  It could be just talk....it could be serious talk.

The thing about this is the timing.  They could have said this back six weeks ago, or even after the election.  They picked this particular weekend to bring this up and talk about it.

My humble guess?  Germany picked it's new President yesterday (Sunday).  There is a court-mandated order on Merkel and company to go and bring Snowden to Germany for this truth commission on the NSA.  Merkel's team has asked for particular directions on this and the court is apparently taking its time because of the delicate nature of this.  There is a extradition treaty that exists between the US and Germany....so Merkel is forcing the court to explain how to get around the treaty (they can't).

With Steinmeier now as President....might there be some heavy-handed conversation where he tries to push the coalition-gov't (with his own SPD Party) to work up some grab-and-go plan in Moscow?

I could see the Germans now in some tight bit of discussion and having a meeting with the top five or six political players under Merkel, and the BND folks (the German CIA).  The discussion?  Get the BND to go into Moscow, "rescue" Snowden, and secretly transport the guy into Germany.  The BND guy will sit there and just shake his head because this is all 1960's-style operational strategy and they haven't done something like this in thirty years.

The Russians?  My guess is that they have devised this whole offering Snowden to the US for an attempt to make the Germans react like this.  They've probably got a dozen special cops in the area of Snowden on a round-the-clock basis.

The German guys who attempt to sneak Snowden out?  They would likely get detained and then Merkel would have to stand there and admit what happened.  Snowden, at that point, realizes that he's pretty deep into some business which he hadn't really considered when he started this secret-agent-man gimmick.

Maybe I'm wrong about this.....but the Russians don't come out and say things by accident.  Everything has a time and a reason.

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