Monday, March 6, 2017

Erdogan's Strategy Game

For those who haven't followed the whole immigrant and migrant episode of Germany.....a massive episode was extended from Germany and the EU....to Turkey back in the spring of 2016.  It was an effort to convince Erdogan (the leader of Turkey) that through various enticements....he could hold back the immigrant flow into Greece, and onto Germany.

There were essentially three pieces to the deal.  The EU would hand Erdogan three billion Euro a year to handle the cost of the refugee camps.  The bulk of this money would come from Germany and France (probably 50-percent) and the rest from the remaining 26 members of the EU.  No one has ever said how the money would be spent, or if it would be wisely spent.

The other two parts of the deal was that strong consideration would occur with allowing Turkey to join the EU, and the free-visa situation for Turks to easily enter the EU member states would very likely happen.  On these two agenda items....if you applied logic to them, I doubt if Turkey expected the EU membership to occur but the visa deal was a fair possibility.

A lot has happened since the spring of 2016 when this deal occurred.

On the positive side...the migrants were halted, and the smuggler organizations in Turkey were basically told to shut up and terminate their operations.  Mass migration across from Turkey halted for the most part.

In the summer of 2016, the coup in Turkey occurred.  It's been viewed in many different ways.  Some think it was a fake coup.  Some think that Erdogan himself helped to facilitate the coup.  The results are kinda dismal for the ordinary Turk.  Erdogan is on a power-building operation and likely to consolidate a lot of his agenda items.  There's a ballot measure coming up shortly to ensure his leadership is concreted down.  Oddly, he needs lots of votes from Turks who reside in Germany.

So in recent weeks, if you follow German news....there's some issues with the general German public, Erdogan's campaign in Germany, and the Berlin-leadership.

Presently, I see only two things coming out of this.  Somewhere before the German election in September, I think Erdogan will terminate the immigrant deal....and let a million-plus individuals leave toward Greece.   The second part of this story is that economics are spiraling to some degree now, and with a dismal tourist season expected in Turkey....things can only get worse for the remainder of 2017.

What happens when the million-plus migrants hit Greece?  It's an interesting situation.

There's a bailout necessity for Greece to occur by July.  If they don't get extra funding via the EU or IMF....they would go into some type of economic spiral (if you've heard this Greece theme before, well, it's a continual thing).

Imagine Erdogan chooses the right moment in early spring before any final deal occurs....just when the heat is going up on the German election campaign.

There are lots of fences up now against the north border of Greece.  Various countries are in a more confrontational situation and don't want migrants crossing the border.

If one-million new migrants were making their way up in June and July to Germany, in the election campaign period?  It puts both major parties (SPD and CDU) into a confrontational mode because they have to settle upon an open-door situation, while thirty to forty percent of the nation questions that theme.

Erdogan realizes this whole game and has maximized the strategy as much as possible.    

1 comment:

Norman Peterson said...

It would be interesting to see what and how much influence DITIB is attempting to exert over German political parties...and the amount of contacts DITIB is maintaining with said parties...and visa-versa...